The
Moneymarket
Lately
analysts, economists and market players were constantly monitoring the course
of Rupiah value movement which tend to constantly weaken against USD and feared
to break through Rp 10,000 per USD. Understandable because during transaction
last Thursday (10/1), although Rupiah value against USD was closed to
strengthen by 25 points (0.25%) to the position of Rp 9,715 per USD against the
previous position of Rp 9,740/Rp 9,745 – Rupiah’s position was still
vulnerable.
Strengthening
of Rupiah at that time was among others due to market's response to outcome of
Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting (RDG) although not resulting in
too much shock on the market. BI was still maintaining benchmark rate at 5.75%
and Bank Indonesia Deposit Facility Interest Rate (Fasbi) at 4%.
Somehow BI was still
optimistic about the outlook of Indonesia's economy although they were still
keeping watch on Indonesia’s deficit in Trade Balance. Therefore Rupiah’s
inter-bank rate was strengthening. Over the sessions, Rupiah reached its
strongest level of Rp 9,700 with lowest level of Rp 9,740 against the position
at opening session of Rp 9,700 per USD.
The only thing was that
Rupiah’s position at the one-month futures market in Singapore dropped
significantly to Rp 9,930 per USD. The condition generated steep downturn of
Rupiah value in some money changers. The significant difference between Rupiah’s
inter-bank rate and the futures market rate indicated there was still fear of
Rupiah’s continued slump. Apparently Rupiah’s downturn at the futures market
was loose and beynd control.
The uncontrolled Rupiah’s
freefall was also on account of global investors who seem to fear continued
Rupiah's weakening. The market seemed also worried of capital outflow.
Meanwhile Rupiah strengthening at inter-bank transaction was thanks to external
positive sentiment. Release of China's trade balance report also breezed out
hope of improved economy in this world’s second largest economy.
The
same was with production data of France which showed increase of 0.5% against
the previous -0.6%. However, investors were still waiting for the meeting
outcome of the Europe Central Bank (ECB). The market wished to see whether ECB
would run monetary policy by maintaining interest rate at the level of 0.75% or
not. All in all, the USD weakened against most of foreign currencies including
Euro. Index of USD weakened to 80,390 against the previous 80.530. Against
Euro, USD weakened to USD 1.3100 USD against the previous 1.3063 dollar per
Euro.
This
week Rupiah's position was predicted to be still volatile with tendency to
weaken. In some money changers and banks, the range of buying price and selling
price of USD was in the range of Rp 9,770 – Rp 9,990. Hence weakening of Rupiah
had been happening over the past week. Weakening of Rupiah would continue to
happen in the short run because investor’s sentiment in Indonesia was bearish.
Rupiah
exchange rate value against USD posted steep downturn up to 7.6% in the past
year, the second worst in Asia next to Japan which weakened by 12.12% .
Analysts of the moneymarket rated that Rupiah depreciation was triggered by
high demand for USD for import, deficit of the trade balance and global
economic slowdown. The local stockmarket which was closed at the positive zone
was not strong enough to shield off pressures on Rupiah.
Fortunately the market saw
that BI was actively making intervention to ease pressures on Rupiah. The
global negative sentiment from the unemployment data in Euro zone, which was
higher than before, was reckoned to contribute to escalation of the USD this
week. It was expected that BI continued to interfere the moneymarket to protect
Rupiah value.
Economists circles
predicted Rupiah exchange rate value against USD in this year 2013 would weaken
at Rp 9,720 from the position of Rp 9,380 in 2012 last year. This was due to
trade balance which was still in deficit. However weakening of the USD was
rated as positive because it would boost export and put brakes on import.
They
were of opinion that global economy in 2014 would still be marked by slowdown
in some countries like Europe, China and India. However with the projection of
Indonesia’s economic growth in 2013 which could reach 6.5% Indonesia’s economy
would still be in good shape thanks to support of local consumption.
It
was noteworthy that the Government was not too much disturbed by Rupiah
weakening. The brighter side of it was that weakening of Rupiah had the
potential of jacking up export. The Government rated that weakening of Rupiah
in the range of Rp 9,500 to Rp 9,700 per USD had positive impact on import and
export performance on month-to-month basis. On the other hand, export
performance would be uplifted because exporters were in more competitive
position.
The
Central Board of Statistics (BPS) posted export of November 2012 at USD 16.44
billion, an increase of 7.3% against export in October 2012 amounting to USD
15.32 billion. Meanwhile import in November 2012 was 16.92 billion USD or down
by 1.67% compared to October 2012 amounting to USD 17.21 billion.
As
footnote Rupiah value through transactions over 2012 was Rp 9,384 per dollar.
Meaning, through 2012 Rupiah value was depreciated by 6.9% against average
value in 2011 at Rp 6,799 per USD. As per January 2013 last, Rupiah exchange
rate value was Rp 9,788 per USD and yet the Government had made assumption for
Rupiah exchange rate value in 2013 at Rp 9,300 per USD.
BI and the Government must
strive to stabilize Rupiah exchange rate value at ideal level in accordance
with the fundamental economic condition. Moreover, in time when current
transaction was posting deficit it would be safer if Rupiah value were
maintained at not too strong level.
Indonesia's
forex reserves in December 2012 was USD 112.78, an increase of USD 1,49 billion
compared to November 2012 at USD 111.29 billion USD. The calculation of forex
reserves was based on the concept of International Reserve and Foreign Currency
Liquidity (IRFLC) based on price formatted according to Official Reserve Asset
(ORA).
Forex
reserves had the potential to expand if deposit proceed of export-based forex
(DHE) in national banks were running well, For that matter it was right for BI
to improve regulations on DHE income and Drawing of Overseas Debt Forex (DULN).
In Bank Indonesia Regulation (PBI) no. 14/25/PBI/2012 on DHE income and DULN
withdrawal effective as per January 1, 2013 BI made obligations for exporters
to receive DHE through Forex Banks.
There
were some revised points in PBI regulations, among them was bank as paymaster
of export transactions. In this case export transactions needed not be made
through overseas banks. The obligation to receive DHE through forex banks was
not applicable on Government owned DHE received through Bl. DHE which was
received in cash at home must be proven by written explanation with enclosed
supporting documents.
DHE
attainment through overseas forex banks contracted each year since 2010. In
2010, DHE received through overseas banks was 22.9%, in 2011 dropped to 19.6%
and in 2012 reduced again to 15%. This figure was rated as not reduced notably
because there were DHE which up to 2012 was still payable to overseas banks.
In 2013, BI was excepting
that the figure would drop below 15%. In 2012 Export-based Forex (DHE) which
entered through local Forex Bank came to USD 107.07 billion. Furthermore those
which entered through overseas bank amounted to USD 22.23 billion. By the above
picture it might be concluded that Rupiah value would be in the range of Rp
9,700 - Rp 9,775 per USD this week.
The Capital Market
Index of IHSG was opened to
strengthen by 0.36% to the level of 4,333.25 in opening session on Friday (11/11).
Around 77 shares moved up, 68 remained stationary, and 21 shares weakened.
Index of LQ45 strengthened by 0.47% to the level of 737.42. Index of JII shares
inched up by 0.39% to the level of 594.41 while index of ISSI strengthened by
0.29% to the level of 144.91.
The
sectors of business which strengthened were consumers 0.45% to the level of 1,548.94;
property which inched up by 0.01% to the level of 336.49 and the sector of
finance which inched up by 0.36%. Total transition of shares at the regular
market reached Rp 237,10 billion with trade volume amounting to 132.23 million
shares. Foreign investors were making clean buying worth Rp 26.57 billion.
Previously
IHSG once fell by 45 points due to mounting act of profit-taking (10/11) and
IHSG index almost stumbled to below the psychological level of 4,300. Notabkly
IHSG was closed to slump by 45.563 points 11.04%1 to the level of 4,317.365.
Meanwhile index of LQ45 was closed to sink by 10.702 points (1.44%) to the
level of 733.906.
Meanwhile
shares price at the Wall Street stockmarket USA rose significantly, driven by
optimism about economic growth in China. Index of S&P 500 touched the
highest level in the past five years. During closing session on Thursday (10/1),
index of Dow Jonas inched up by 80.71 points (0.60%) to the level of 13,471.22
Index of Standard & Poor's 500 rose to the level of 11.10 points (0.76%) to
the level of 1,472.12 Index of Composite Nasdaq rose by 15.95 points (0.51%) to
the level of 3,121.76.
Historically,
January was a positive month for shares market. Shares of the financial sector
and energy took the lead in market strengthening. Index of the financial
sector rose by 1.4% and the energy sector 1%. Anysts rated that data of
China's economy posed as catalyst of index movement. Export data of China rose
high in December after three consecutive months of slowdown. The energized WII
Street index was triggered by hope of improvement of existent’s performance
through financial report season which was to arrive soon.
Wall
street fear index which swept over US stockmarkets fell to the lowest level in
the past 5.5 years. This downturn indicated more positive outlook of the global
stockmarket which was more positive. Vix index which recorded optimism or
pessimism over market volatility was disclosed in the stipulation of protective
optional price over movement of S&P 500 Index. Normally some investment
managers sought for hedging to anticipate steep downfall of price shares. Vix
referred to the hedging price as benchmark for market optimism.
Investment
Managers believed that low Vix index was an indication that the Fed had
succeeded as supporter of the rnoneymarket and had succeeded in reducing demand
for hedging assets. Signals of optimism was also supported by shifts of
investors from bond market to shares market. This was a reflection of global
market recovery and economic recovery in the USA which was stabilizing.
It was not worthy that Vix
was not the only standard of market optimism and only represented views of the
Pacific only. In Europe there was similar indicator called Vostoxx. In case
the to of them came at the same time, it was not impossible that the world's
economy was recovering in facing crisis.
Meanwhile stockmarket
movement in Asia tend to be positive. Index of Nikkei 225 soared up by 132.92
points (1.25%) to the level of 10,785,56. Index of KOSPI rose by 2.12 points (0.11%)
to the level of 2,008. 92 Regional stockmarket on the average succeeded to
move in the Green zone, except China's stockmaket which was still corrected
amides bettered export performance,
Back to the local
stockmarket foreign investors were seen to to accumulate shares buying which
were recorded since early year. According analysts accumulated buyings by
foreign investors were response to the agreement over fiscal cliff in the USA
which was understood as positive signal stockmarket performance in 2013.
Based on data of Indonesia
Stock Exchange (BEI) investor's clean buying of 2 to 8 January 2013 (five
business days) posted at Rp2.4 trillion. Notably almost everyday foreign
investors posted net buyings of shares listed at the local stockmarket. It was
not an exaggeration that IHSG projection this week would be in the range of
4,330 - 4,375 supported by shares of the financial sector, also
telecommunication, construction and retail business.
Business News - January 16,2013
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