It seemed that market players would focus attention on the agreement between the government and parliament in regard to revision of APBN-P State Budget 2013. One of the highlighted topics would be slump in Indonesia’s economic growth from the previous 6.8% to become 6.3%. The difference of 0.5% was rated by market players as significant figure. Compared the realization of last year which was 6.23%, meaning the projection of 6.3% was rated as pessimistic.
Market players compared Indonesia’s target growth of 6.3% with growth realization of 2012 in Thailand and the Philippines which was posted at 6.5% and 7.2% respectively; which means that Indonesia could no longer take pride of being the best achiever because of being edged aside by the two fellow Asean countries.
Market players had to hear bad news of trade balance which again showed deficit excessive import of oil gas was the culprit. Only trouble was, the decision to increase oil price by the government was never made. This made negative market perception of Indonesia’s market even worse. This was not to mention the impact of oil price increase which jacked up inflation in the range of 7.5%-8.2% this year with all the implications.
Over the week the issue of economic growth would continue to overshadow the market which restricted Rupiah movement to consolidate. Positive sentiment would come if by next week the government finally decided to increase oil price.
The Money Market
During transaction on Wednesday [5/6] or one day before national holiday last Thursday, Rupiah value against USD at the interbank spot market strengthened at Rp9, 790 per USD; previously Rupiah was opened at Rp9, 800 per USD with strongest level Rp9, 790 and weakest level 9,805, finally Rupiah was closed to settle at Rp9, 970 per USD.
Rupiah position inched up, driven by minimum sentiment. Market players were also still waiting for data of Non Farm Payrolls and ADB Employment Data. Investors who were waiting for employment data, ISM non-manufacturing data report etc. made USD quite stable and needed no extra momentum. Such had the positive impact on Rupiah to give it extra energy to inch up.
In addition to that there were no sentiments from the domestic side to influence Rupiah movement. Government’s indecision about increasing oil price brought negative sentiment on Rupiah. Rupiah only inched up after the Central Bank made intervention on Rupiah. Demand for USD increased by end of last month. Although the Central Bank constantly safeguarded Rupiah, Government’s indecision brought negative impact on Rupiah.
Acts of profit taking at the stock market by foreign investors contributed to mounting pressures on Rupiah. It was known that investors made net sell of Rp616.05 billion.
During transaction last weekend [7/6] Rupiah value against USD had the potential to weaken although in reality Rupiah turned out to strengthen to the position of Rp9, 780 per USD compared to the position during closing session on Wednesday [5/6] at Rp9, 785 per USD. Apparently by week end trade volume tend to thin out, which forced Rupiah to consolidate,
Rupiah would also be influenced by external data like Non Farm Payrolls. US economic data tend to be satisfactory, hence giving positive sentiment to USD which could hamper Rupiah value. In response to it BI would make intervention to keep Rupiah from sinking to deeply. All in all Rupiah was predicted would be in the range of Rp9, 775 – Rp9, 850 per USD.
Many analysts predicted that external sentiment would constantly overshadow Rupiah movement. Sentiment from the Fed who made their buying of obligations sooner, and Indonesia booking bigger deficit, brought negative sentiment on Rupiah. So projection of Rupiah value this week would be in the range of Rp9, 775 – Rp9, 850 per USD was quite reasonable.
One thing noteworthy was when the Directorate General of Debt Management, Ministry of Finance [DJPU] stipulated 20 financial institutions as candidate seller of retail [ORI] at the Premier Market of budget year 2013. The committee for ORI agency service of the Premier Market budget year 2013 DJPU of the Ministry of Finance mentioned that 20 candidate agents of ORI consisted of 17 banks and 3 security companies.
The 17 banks were Citibank NA, Bank ANZ Indonesia, Bank Bukopin, Bank Central Asia, CMB Niaga, Bank Danamon Indonesia, Bank International Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia, OCBC, Bank Panin, Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat & Banten. Also Bank Permata, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, UOB Indonesia, Standard Chartered Bank and the Hong Kong and Standard Banking Corporation.
Meanwhile three security companies were Danareksa Sekuritas, Trimegah Securities and Mandiri Sekuritas. The decision was effective as per date of stipulation [May 31, 2013] until the end of rejection period, i.e. 5 working days after stipulation.
The prediction that Rupiah would be under pressure was also made when there was good news from the Central Board of Statistics [BPS] which posted deflation of 0.03% which was the first deflation for the first time in the past 10 years. The deflation figure in May was thanks to the Government’s role in overcoming increased food price, which accounted for high inflation at early year.
Some commodities having downturn in May 2013 were among others red onions, garlic’s, rawit chili, red chili and gold & jewelry. The general inflation components contributed 0, 03% followed by restless price 1.1% while general inflation contributed 0, 83 inflation of 0. 06% and price regulated was 0, 96%. Meanwhile based on expenditure group, food contributed deflation of 0, 83% followed by garment’s category where deflation was posted at 1. 22%.
The categories of ready food, beverages and tobacco contributed 0. 35% to inflation, followed by housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel which were having inflation of 0. 75%. Furthermore the health category also contributed 0. 23% to inflation; education, and sport 0. 06% and transportation, communication and finance had deflation of 0. 03%. Hence inflation rate of calendar year January-May 2013 reached 2.3% and annual inflation [ y o y ] 5.4%.
Supposedly combined two good news: ORI sales plan and May deflation contributed to Rupiah strengthening, but it did not happen due to the sizable negative sentiment and negative perception of foreign investors. Moreover at about the same time BPS also released negative news about Indonesia’s trade balance which posted deficit of USD 1.62 billion – as Indonesia’s import outsized export.
Indonesia’s total export in April 2013 was 14.7 billion USD. Meanwhile the total export was USD 16.31 billion – so in April deficit was posted at USD 1.2 billion. Trade balance for the period of January to April 2013 still posted deficit of USD 1.85 billion. Export was posted at USD 60.11 billion and import was posted at USD 61.96 billion. The cause do deficit in Trade Balance was oil gas import which never went down.
The capital market
Just like Rupiah’s unimpressive projection, index oh IHSG was predicted to weaken by end of session last Friday [7.6%]. IHSG would be at the level of support and resistance at 4,950 – 5,000, being overshadowed by continued act of selling by foreign investors and negative sentiment from trade deficit which reached high record for the period of April last.
Evidently, IHSG sank by 16 points and must submerge from the psychological level of 5,000. During pre-opening session, IHSG weakened by 16.898 points [0, 34%] to the level of 4,984.323 whist index of LQ45 dropped by 4.260 points [0.51%] to the level of 826.832.
Furthermore, starting session last weekend, [7/6] IHSG was opened to lessen by 27.521 points [0.55%] to the level of 4,973.700. Index of LQ 45 was axed by [0.78%] to the level of 824,642. Acts of selling were focused on premium shares which already rose notably high. There was only one industrial sector at the stock market hall which still strengthened. Broadly speaking IHSG was still affected by negative sentiment from the Asian stock market although the Wall Street stock market ended positively after fluctuating toward announcement of the latest US employment data.
Regional stock markets moved the mixed way where some shares managed to strengthen, some of them trapped in the red zone. Index of composite Shanghai rose by 4.65 points [0.21%] to the level of 2,246.76. Index of Hang Seng strengthened by 90.45 points [0.41%] to the level of 21,747.98. Index of Nikkei was reduced by 122.51 points [0.95%] to the level of 12, 781, 51. Index of straits times fell by 8, 63 points [0.27%] to the level of 3, 184.88.
Meanwhile IHSG which weakened last Wednesday [5/6] was driven by external negative sentiment. Statement of the economists that the Fed would probably slowdown stimulus now underway would not be until September amidst economic recovery. The estimates was in tandem with bettered some of US economic data including unemployment data.
In addition to that, Asian regional stock market also weakened following the downfall of Nikkei index in response to the speech of Primer Minister Shinzo Abe in relation to Japan’s economic strategy. Acts of buying was also triggered by Dow Jones stock market which weakened and negative sentiment from market players’ fear of the Fed’s stimulus.
At the Asian stock market there was declining stock transaction last Friday [7/6] as shares in Japan soared up in three years and market players were waiting for the US employment data. Index of Topic Japan weakened by 1.6%. Index of MSCI Asia Pacific was volatile, inching up to 0.1% to the level of 131, 44 at 10.22 Tokyo time. Index of Nikkei Japan weakened by 1.4% to the level of 12,724.83.
Previously index of shares had sumped by 9% from the highest level on May 20th. This index of benchmark share weakened amidst speculations that America’s economy was improving which forced the Fed to review their stimulus policy. On the other hand, Japan’s Prime Minister failed to impress investors about development strategy in his speech last weekend. PM Abe’s development strategy had been anticipated which eliminated the chance of buying. Japan’s stock market was corrected to a point where some might buy some share.
Other stock markets on the downturn were among others Australia stock market weakening by 0.5%, New Zealand inching down by 0.1% index of Kospi South Korea weakened by 0.6%. Meanwhile Index of Hong Kong Hang Seng weakened by 0.6% during initial session. Index of Shanghai inched up by 0.2%. Some shares weakened, like Newcrest Mining Ltd weakened by 3% while share of Tokyo Electric Power Co increased by 5.1%.
Back to the local security exchange [BEI] IHSG was projected to weaken in the range of 4,940 – 5,020 although inflation was haunting shares of consumer goods, this sector was predicted to move positively through Semester Two 2013. Some factors jacked up the consumer goods sector:
Firstly, the emerging middle class in Indonesia which had come to 100 million people.
Secondly, increased people’s purchasing power due to increase of the nation’s per capita income.
Thirdly, the population of Indonesia which continued to increase.
However, this sector had to face future challenges like increased price of subsidized oil, inflation, increased electricity tariff [TDL] and workers’ wages; moreover with the mounting threat of competitors’ product were increasing in number.
PT Semen Baturaja Tbk had great opportunity to make positive performance; this was proven by various domestic infra structure projects underway, which created a high demand for cement industry. The cement industry in Indonesia would be highly prospective which support of infra structure building being spurred on by the government; not to mention the energized property industry in Indonesia being enhanced by the government. Furthermore there was the dynamic property industry in Indonesia and the zealous project developments run by developers.
The investment factor in Indonesia in various industry sectors also triggered development of factories, office buildings, housing, roads etc. so Indonesia economy would still grow, being supported by increased domestic consumption.
To review performance of PT Semen Baturaja over 2008-2012, there was average sales of 8% while net profit was posted at 22% which indicated that there had been positive company’s growth year after year. Furthermore Semen Baturaja commanded over 48% of market share In South Sumatra and 28% market share in Lampung which could serve as asset for future growth.
PT Semen Baturaja would run IPO in this year 2003. IPO of BUMN was being awaited for by players of the capital market. Moreover in 2012 there was not single BUMN who run IPO. Predictably IPO of PT Semen Baturaja would get positive response from investors. Performance of infra-structure builder companies was recently high. Semen Baturaja which was a producer of cement would be advantaged by the condition.
The fund obtained from IPO would be used for building a cement factory in Sumatra. This was necessary to increase production capacity this year at 1.85 million tons. This emitent candidate offered IPO price around Rp500 – Rp685 per share. Pricing was based on Price Earning Ratio 2013: 13.5 times this year; whist next year would be 13 times and 11.4 times in 2015 next. The company would release 23.76% share to the public numbering 2, 33 billion shares.
Not less important was PT Cipaganti Citra Graha Tbk who would offer shares amounting to 2 billion shares at nominal value of Rp100 or equal to placed capital and fully paid to the public. The shared being offered consisted of 1.75 billion shares and shares of PT cipaganti Global Corporindo 250 million shares. In this IPO the company was also doing employee stock allocation [ESA] numbering 40 million shares.
The IPO based shares would be used for investment like expansion of vehicles armada and other supporting factors constituting around 93.21% while around 6.79% would be used for company’s working capital. The company had appointed PT Mandiri Sekuritas and PT Kim Eng Securities as Guarantor of Emission.
The company booked comprehensive profit to be attributed to owner of main entity to rise to Rp76.29 billion in 2012 of the same period the previous year at Rp42.74 billion. Company’s business income rose to Rp639 billion in 2012 against the same period the previous year at Rp529.43 billion. Total company’s liability was Rp872.88 in 2012 of the same period the previous year Rp888, 95 billion. Company’s asset rose to Rp1.38 trillion in 2012 of the same period of last year Rp1.15 trillion.
Initial offering of shares in June 5-18 2013, the effective date being June 27, 2013, General Public Offering on July 1-3 2013, allocation and distribution of shares on July 8, 2013, and booking of BEI shares on July 9, 2013. (SS)
Business News - June 12,2013