Some economic analysts rated that the government’s plan to increase oil price would not lessen companies’ interest to issue bonds. The point was that such a discourse was already there since about two years ago, that there was probably reduced investors’ interest or negative impact on interest rate, but the fact was that investors remained to invest.
Oil price increase had been anticipated by would-be investor o bond issuers so the risk for companies seemed ignorable. About risk-profile, they also did not worry about it since the fundamental corporate who issue the bonds seemed notably healthy.
The only thing was if price of subsidized oil increased, it would jack up inflation and bank’s interest. This would certainly bring effect to bonds since investors would demand more coupons. However this was still rated as reasonable as long as corporate bond’s out standings were relatively positive, surely coupon’s yields would be competitive too.
The stocmarket’s prospect was just as positive because some would-be emitents were already preparing to step in to the stock market. The heartening fact was that so far Indonesia’s stock market was most profitable compared to that of other ASEAN states. If there was any investor who invested USD 100 in 2003 in Indonesia’s premium shares, today the value would have been USD 980.
Assuming there was a similar case, i.e. an investor invested USD 100 in premium shares Singapore 10 years ago, the value today would have been USD 33, while in Malaysia the investment would have grown to USD 336. However, if USD 100 were invested in premium shares in Thailand 10 years ago, now the value would become USD 556, while in the Philippines USD 70. The phenomenon indicated that there were three big stock markets in ASEAN, i.e. Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand which were zealous.
The capital market was an open sector accessible by investors from all over the world. An investor could invest or withdraw his capital at the stock market simultaneously. The question was would Indonesia be able to benefit from his high and profitable stock market for developing economy? Indonesia is a paradise for investors: at least this appealing sector was enjoyed by foreign investors who commanded the majority of emitents with biggest market capitalization at the Indonesia Security Exchange [BEI].
Of 10 emitents with biggest market capitalization, 3 were owned by foreigners. In five short years [since 2009 to May 21 2013], marketcap of the 3 emitents soared up high. All in all, with their majority ownership, foreign investors were enjoying potential gain of Rp537.6 trillion.
The three emitents were: HM Sampoerna, Astra International and Unilever Indonesia. Over that period, Sampoerna marketcap soared up by 744% form Rp45.58 trillion to Rp385,7 trillion or increasing by 340.12 trillion. This cigarette producer underscored themselves as emitents of biggest marketcap in BEI.
Meanwhile Astra marketcap rose by 107% from Rp140.48 trillion to Rp289.46 trillion [increasing by Rp148.98 trillion] and Unilever marketcap rose by from Rp84.31 trillion Rp236.15 trillion, an increase of Rp151, 84 trillion.
The Sampoerna family who founded the company in 1913 sold all of their shares [40%] worth Rp18.5 trillion on March 2005 to Phillip Morris, an American company. Today the majority of shares were possessed by PT Phillip Morris Indonesia with 98.18 ownership, the rest being owned by the public.
The profit potential reaped by the foreign company were not castles I the sky. Just like HM Sampoerna, other big cap emitents also relied on Indonesia’s strong domestic consumption with population of around 250 million. The domestic market was supported by 70 million middle class people which grew faster than national economic growth rate of 6%. Direct investment in Indonesia was also growing, especially with the fact that investment in developed countries was still gloomy amidst global crisis.
The profit being reaped by the company was attributed to the hawk eye vision of well managed companies, and at the same time not hesitant in injecting additional fund while running world class management. Investors also had long term commitments. Supposedly the sweet profit potential was enjoyed by local investors. It was a pity that the number of local investors who had keen eyes to make the best of investment opportunity in BEI was still small in number. Today there were only around 4500 thousand sub-account effect or less than 0.16% who were being investors among total Indonesia’s population. Local players were more interested in hunting instant profit by buying shares in the morning session and sell them in the afternoon session.
And yet local players could benefit from prospective emintents for long term investment. Local players could be more tactical in investing by buying share of highly prospective companies run by sound management. Local players needed not to struggle head over heels because it was money who worked for them.
For that matter, the role of the Financial Service Authorities [OJK] and other related parties including BEI were badly needed to awaken people’s awareness to invest properly at the stockmarket. The public needed to be educated whereby to master knowledge and the art of investing needed including understanding all the risks.
It was advisable to include the education and training program in the curriculum at early stage. On the other hand, to protect investors and to build proper trading culture must be enhanced. OJK and the Government must ease and inject incentives to drum up more companies offering shares at the stockmarket.
While companies were getting cheap funding, the high number of emitents also stimulated stock exchange to be more liquid, and the people were having broader choice of investment. Moreover there were 3,000 eligible companies who were qualified for entering the stockmarket which means increase of market capitalization.
Hence increase of people’s income and zest invest would be channeled to the right instruments at the stockmarket. Cases of fictitious investment which looted trillions of Rupiah needed not to repeat.
Moreover PT Bursa Efek Indonesia [BEI] rated that the stockmarket had promising future and could be an alternative choice for the Indonesian people instead of investing in real assets like land, building etc of higher risk. So far many Indonesians were allergic to the word “share” and “stockmarket” although such line of business was not less promising.
In case of risk, any type of investment at all incurred risk, but the point was that we had to know and understand the characteristics and system of the stockmarket. The stockmarket played an important role in a stockmarket, because it it played dual role, i.e. economy and finance and combined two interests: those who had excessive fund on the one had and those badly in need of fund on the other.
Indonesia had sizable potential of local investors, with population of more than 240 million people and GDP increasing by 33.3% in the past 3 years. The more people interested in investing in the capital market, the stronger the base of local investors would be in Indonesia’s stockmaret.
In line with market capitalization, Indonesia’s capital market today was outsized only by Singapore. Now BEI was already bigger than the stockmarket of Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. So far National emitents were showing good performance. Therefore foreign or local investors were trying to place their shares in Indonesia’s emitents, especially in sector rated as prospective.
However, today national investors numbered only not more that 400,000, of which 150 companies had launched Initial Public Offering. The number was way below ideal capacity supposedly owned by the national capital market. Therefore market’s in-depth probing, strengthening of market efficiency and market integrity were the important aspects. The public needed varied financial products which they could access.
Hence, even if the government finally increased price of subsidized oil, it would not generate negative effect to the capital market because investors were ready to throw away their shares to be managed at the attractive stockmarket. By prediction IHSG would approach the 5,500 level in the near further and further and further to move up to 6,000. (SS)
Business News - June 05,2013