The
Money market
During opening session last week, (8/2), Rupiah
exchange rate value in inter-bank transactions hardly ever moved or even close
to stationary at Rp 9.690 per USD. Rupiah value was predictably under
pressure. By Bank Indonesia's protection, on that day Rupiah was estimated to
move at the level of Rp 9.650 – Rp 9.700 per USD.
The fact was that Rupiah was moving in the range of
Rp 9.850 - Rp 9.700 per USD in the past
5 days. During transaction last Thursday (7/2) Rupiah was closed stronger at Rp
9.677 per USD. Betterment of some economic data, especially the USA and Uni
Europa was expected to strengthen Rupiah, but such did not lessen Bank
Indonesia’s cautiousness in monitoring and protecting Rupiah.
Other factors that strengthened Rupiah was the
outcome of initial auction of SBSN Sukuk of which a total of Rp 1,5 trillion
was won, or equal to initial target (total offer that entered came to Rp 4.132
trillion) had positive impact on Rupiah movement. Released data of
Indonesia's GDP of Quarter IV-2012 that dropped against quarter III-2012 but
was still above 6%, i.e. 6.23% (for annual GDP 2012) confirmed Indonesia’s
position at the fastest growing economy in the world next to China. Such was
predicted to have positive impact on Rupiah movement this week.
The Central Board of Statistics (BPS) noted that
economic growth through 2012 was only posted at 6.23%. The realization slumped
against economic growth of 2011 by 6.5%. Economic growth through 2012 was only
6.23%. This realization was a downturn against economic growth of 2011 at 6.5%.
Economic growth through quarter IV-2012 only came to Rp 6.11%. Indonesia's GDP
of 2012 based on effective price was Rp 8,241.9 trillion - whilst based on constant
price (2000) was Rp 2,878.1 trillion.
By consumption, economic growth through previous
years was mainly jacked up by household consumption 5.38% and Gross Fixed
Capital Formation (PMTB) amounting to 9.81%. Household consumption showed
increase against 2011 by 4.71% whilst PMTB was showing increase of 8.77%.
Meanwhile Government's expenditure for consumption
only came to 1.25%, export was 2.01% and Import 6.65 percent. Government’s expenditure
was showing downturn due to austerity in expenditure for goods buying, and then
there was moratorium of civil servants so expenditure for civil servants was
not showing high growth.
Meanwhile source of growth based on economic sector
was particularly contributed by processing industry 1.47%; trading, hotel and
restaurant 1.44% and transportation and communication 0.98%.
As with
extern el factor, the improved global situation, especially the condition in
Europe and the USA after the release of data of Europe and USA which were above
expectation was expected to have positive impact on Rupiah. In this case BI was
constantly monitoring movement of Rupiah without pretense of driving Rupiah
value to any range. Appreciation for Rupiah which happened in the pest two weeks
was due to inflow of foreign capital (PMA), not because BI set Rupiah exchange
rate value.
The only
thing was, for this week marketplayers had to be cautious about US economic
data because it might influence perceptions of marketplayers of Asian
currencies. At home, data of Soaring inflation in January or 1.03% weakened
Rupiah value against USD. On the other hand, slump of USD value was also stimulated
by unemployment data in America which rose, a condition which indicated
slowdown of US economy. Worsening of US economy had its global impact so investors
tend to invest their money of the safe haven such as the USD.
On the other hand, data of US GDP
which was still below 1% had strengthened exchange rate value of USD in line
with increasing demand for save haven currency to avoid Marco-economy risk. One
noteworthy point was that either BI or the Government were concerned about
Non-Delivery Forward (NDF). The point was that the Government suspected NDF as
the cause of recent Rupiah weakeing.
Date of BI had it that through
2012 Rupiah exchange rate value had been depreciated by 6.3% (y o y) to Rp
9.358 per USD from Rp 8,768 per USD in the previous years. Meanwhile by
point-to-point Rupiah weakened by 5.91% and was closed at Rp 9.638 per USD.
The disheartening situation had forced the Government the ask BI to coordinate with
the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to discuss policy of that monetary
authority which wee reckoned to have facilitated development of NDF market
there.
In this case there were some measures which were
necessary to Lid taken to stabilize Rupiah:
Firstly, Bank Indonesia must actively but accurately
make intervention at the forex market to fulfil the domestic need for USD.
Secondly, the Government and BI needed to foster coordination
so importers and investors prioritized the local forex market as source of USD.
Thirdly, the Government and BI also needed to command
businesspeople to report their need for forex, particularly USD regularly whereby
procurement of the forex could be anticipated early according to the need to
buy goods, to pay debt installment plus interest and fee to overseas
counterparts.
Fourthly, the Government must immediately reduce
import of oil fuel which absorbed forax enormously. The Government must have
the courage to rake unpopular but strategic policy such as abolishing oil subsidy
and increase oil price at home in accordance with the accountable price.
Admittedly strengthening at Rupiah became difficult
due to weakening of Euro recently. Euro's exchange rate value had lost 1% against
USD during last weekend (8/2) after the Europe Central Bank (ECB) maintained
bank interest level and Governor of ECB Mario Dhargi described unimpressive
image of the economic condition in Europe. Euro was once traded at 1,3395 USD,
the lowest in 2 weeks, a downturn against the previous 1.3519 USD.
In a press conference after ECB interest rate was
decided, Dhargi shielded off pressures to adopt policies to lower Euro value.
According to Dhergi, appreciation for Euro means regained trust in Euro. However,
he also stressed that money's exchange rate value must reflect condition of
fundamental economy if Euro strengthened, it could serve as challenge to price
stabilizing effort. Dhargi believed that exchange rate value was not the main
target of policy.
From the above picture it might be concluded that
Rupiah would consolidate in the range of Rp 9,650 – Rp 9,700 per USD.
The
Capital Market
The development of domestic stockmarket was quite
heartening. The price of IHSG last Thursday (1/8) inched up by 4 points by
support of second tier shares. Although moving up only slightly, again index
hit the highest record of all times. To end session on Thursday (7/2), IHEG was
closed to inch up by 4.1 72 points (0.09%) to the level of 4.503.148. Meanwhile
index of LQ45 was closed to strengthen by 0.545 points (0.07%) to the level of
770.394.
Again index broke through the
highest level although only slightly moving up. Yet the highest record of all
times was only broken in the previous session, i.e. at the level of 4,498.976.
The notable thing was the Wall Street stockmarket closed their sessions with
corrections (7/2). Comment by ECB President Mario Dhargi and bad projections of
Europe's economy triggered selling spree.
During closing session an
Thursday (7/2), index of Dow Jonas weakened by 42.47 points (0.30%) to the
level of 13,944.05. Index of Standard & Poor's 500 slumped by 2.73 points
(0.18%) to the level of 1,509.39 Index of Composite Nasdaq lessened by 3.34 points
(0.11%) to the lever of 3,165.13.
Draghi
stated that Euro's exchange rote value against USD was most important in maintaining
stability. Investors interpreted the statement as bank's anxiety about Euro’s
development and the impact on Europe's economy. Although weakening, Wall street
still scored growth since early this year. Index of S&P 500 had risen by 5.8%
in 2013. Many analysts rated the corrections made at that time as something
natural after Wall Street strengthened several times. Meanwhile Asian stockmarkets
were moving the varied way. Index of Nikkei 225 dropped by 93.61 points (0,81%)
to the level of 11,263.46 index of KOSPI rose by 2,11 points (0.11%) to the
level of 1,933.88.
All in all
psychologically the market which was still optimistic marked IHSG movement in
early session last weekend (8/2). Index was opened to strengthen by 10.122
points or around 0.22 percent to the level of 4,513.270. Index of LQ jacked up
increase of IHSG by strengthening by 2.373 points (0.31%) to the level of 773.783.
By last weekend, (8/2) IHSG was predicted to move
the mixed way in narrow range (4.495 -4,515) after again Scoring highest
record of ell time. Investors' buying end selling zest was today still well
balanced. Natural as there was opinion that IHSG was rising too feet and was
feared to trigger backflow.
Meanwhile this week IHSG would try to break through
its highest level throughout history. This attempt was made amidst correction
of the global market due to mounting fear of Europe's economic future.
The only thing was that investors must be keen-eyed
to see performance of the sectoral eminent. Data showed that performance of the
property finance and mining sectors surpassed IHSG performance in January 2013.
According to analysts, growth of the three sectors still had the potential to
continue through quarter 1-2013 due to positive sentiments of financial performance
realization 2012.
Data of the Indonesia Security Exchange (BEI) had it
that the property sector grew by 11.38% in January, the Finance sector grew by
7.96% and the mining sector grew by 4.53%. Over the same period IHSG grew by
3.17%.
Not less important was to observe expectation of
market players of growth realization of emitents of the coal mining sector
through 2012 which was not too high. Through 2012 last, performance of emitents
of the coal mining sector tend to be suppressed as selling price of the global
market tend to be fluctuative while price of shares were low. Marketpleyers
were waiting for performance report of coalmine emitents of quarter IV-2012 as
strategic investment of shares till Semester I-2013.
The banking sector was also worth observing. Seven
big banks of the upper strata booked Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) above the
average of industry up to November 2012 last. Word was out that banks would
increase external financing resources to support credit pipelining since
growth of Third Party Fund (LDR) wee more difficult. LDR of the said banks were
above the average of banking industry which was 83.61%.
By the above picture, this week IHSG was projected
to move in the range of 4,600 - 4,520 with the tendency to strengthen.
Business News - February 13,2013
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