Sunday, 1 March 2015


The Moneymarket

Indonesia’s, Taiwan and South Korea currencies took the lead in weakening process the happened to most Asian currencies last Thursday [29/1]. Of 11 currencies monitored through Bloomberg Dollar Index, 3 currencies went up, 7 currencies slumped and one currency stagnated.

Currencies of South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia posted most significant upturn. Korean Won inched down by 0.88% to 1,093.95 per USD, Taiwanese Dollar inched down by 0.81% to 31.51 per USD while Rupiah inched down inched down by 0.76% to Rp.12,581.90 per USD. On the other hand Singapore Dollar inched up by 0.10% to 1.35 per USD while Philippine Peso inched up by 0.03% to 44.09 per USD.

Strengthening of USD against other currencies was still going on. BI predicted strengthening of USD might continue all year through. USD during closing session was at Rp.12,573 strengthening against that in opening session at Rp.12,515 due to QE by Europe and Japan.

ECB would throw out Euro which would make USD to strengthen – not just against Euro but against all currencies including Rupiah. Early this there was twin shock where all commodity prices slump, among them oil which dropped to as low as USD 40 per barrel, lowered oil price its victim, i.e. Russia.

The result was that Russia’s Rubbel nosed down to above 60% (ytd). Indonesia and Malaysia were having currency weakening but not as severe as Rubbel. There were to forces that suppressed emerging countries i.e. lowered commodity prices and strengthening USD.

With many uncertainties, most probably USD would continue to strengthen. For example IMF had lowered global economic projection 2015 from 3.8% to 3.5%. Under the circumstances investors tend to seek for save haven like the USD.

BI stated that revision of Rupiah value assumption from Rp.12,200 to Rp.12,500 in APBN-P was still relevant with global condition.

With estimated strengthening of USD the assumed Rp.300 weakening was still in accordance with budget posture 2015. Change of exchange rate assumption would govern size of state’s income in 2015. BI felt that Rp.12,500 per USD represented APBN-P 2015.

Beside the global factor, changed of assumed Rupiah value would also consider the deficit factor which had been prevalent in the past 3 years.

For 2015, BI projected deficit in current transaction to remain at above 3% of GDP due to enhanced infra structure building which would trigger import of capital goods. BI would constantly observe the condition of the moneymarket and focus effort on growth rated based on economic stability.

On thing to be watched on was increase of Fed Fund Rate by the Fed in the USA around June 2015 which small as it might be (only 25 bps) it would increase demand for USD in Indonesia.

So the challenge of this year was possible negative impact from FFR increase. There would be high demand for USD through May-June for repatriation of dividend, payment of coupon etc so the Government and BI must watch out.

However, by end of year Rupiah exchange rate would not break through psychological level since the potential of capital was quite high because inflow of portofolio was quite sizable. Rupiah would be stable at Rp.12,000 – Rp.12,500 per USD till end of year.

Also worth observing was policy of the Singapore Monetary Authority [MAS] which would slowdown the process of Singapore Dollar upturn against other currencies, making Singapore the latest country to ease their monetary policy.

Inflation rate which soared up globally made central banks to panick and drive them to act even more than pessimistic predictions of analysts. Economic slowdown in China, low inflation in the Eurozone and falling world’s oil price increased global problems which forced the Central Banks of Canada, India and Turkey to axe their bank interest this year to jack up their economy.

Recently ECB extended their monetary policy aimed at jacking up investment. MAS step to halt their Dollar flow which was unsuspected by the market, done by way of lowering their currency exchange rate by 1.4% to become S$ 1,3570 against USD. Singapore adopted the managed exchange rate instead of bank interest as main instrument of their monetary policy.

Weakening of currency means increase of import cost, timing of inflation and make export to be more competitive MAS disclosed that the main reason for adopting the policy was to lower global oil price. Supposedly steep downturn of oil price be beneficial to oil importer countries in the long run by axing business cost.

However in the short run MAS was worried that lowered price might cause deflation the way it happened in Japan over the past 15 years, according to MAS chances were small that oil price would soar up again this year.

Some economists predicted that other central banks would axe their interest lower in the next months. When China slashed their interest last November, South Korea their lending rate twice last year. Japan also extended their massive buying of asset aimed at monetary easing.

Although Thailand and Singapore maintained their bank interest (28/1) many economist predicted the Malaysia Central Bank would axe their bank interest this year. Thailand must also relax their monetary policy due to weakening to export lesser domestic demand. Enhanced effort to jack up economy through easing of monetary policy triggered currency devaluation in Asia where countries were relying on export.

Although monetary easing were commonplace, Morgan Stanley believed that Asian monetary authorities needed to be more aggressive because to adjust to inflation level bank interest was still high.

The high real bank made it difficult for policy for companies and households to pay debts which were high since global crisis of 2008. Last weekend (30/1) Rupiah was still under pressure and was closed in the range of Rp.12,560 – Rp.12,600 per USD. Pressures still continued over this week (30/11) so Rupiah would still settle at around Rp.12,560 – Rp.12,620 per USD as sentiment was low.

The Capital Market

The US stockmarket last Wednesday (29/1) was closed to weaken. Index of Dow Jones Industrial Average was corrected by 1.13% while index of S&P500 dropped by 1.35%. At Asia’s stockmarket, index of Nikkei 225 Japan weakened by 0.67% while index of KOSPI Composite Area (South Korea) dropped 0.46%.

At home, there was unpleasant development when 14 State Owned Companies (BUMN) might not get capital placement in 2015. It happened when Commission XI of House received report from the Financial Examination Board on BUMN which had not followed up the bad report card given to them. During transaction last weekend (30/1). IHSG was predicted to be in support of 5,200 and resistance 5,300.

The good news was that ASIAN Stockmarket were opened positive on the last day of January (30/11) Index of MSCI Asia Pacific inched up by 0.3%. Hence through January reference index in the region came to 2.2%. Positive movement of Asian stockmarket was this month supported by ECB to inject stimulus following BoJ planning to run quantitative easing.

Acts of Central Banks was still the main them of this year. US data kept improving while unemployment claim fell to its lowest level in 15 years. It came as no surprise that he Fed was so optimistic of US labor market. Index of Topix rose by 1% as ¥en was traded at 118,28 per USD. Meanwhile index of Kospi South Korea and index of S&P/ASX 200 Australia inched up by 0.6% while index of NZX.

Meanwhile the stockmarkets of China and Hong Kong were not open yet. Through this month, index of Hang Seng Reference index was up by 4.2%, while index of Sanghai Composite inched up by 0.9% while IHSG was reduced by 6 points amidst reluctant transactions. Index also moved within narrow range.

To start transaction, IHSG inched down by 5.317 points (10%) to the level of 5,263.535. Index was carried away by negative sentiment from weakening regional stockmarkets. Index was still unable to touch the green zone since opening session. Selling spree was happening at all share levels. The lowest level ever touched by IHSG was at 5,253.452. two sectors managed to strengthen, i.e. construction and trading.

Finally during transaction at BEI last Thursday (29/1) IHSG was closed low by 6.001 point (0.11%) to the level of 5,262,851. While index of LQ 45 Inched down by 1.312 points (0.14%) to 910.382 as foreign investors turned inactive.

At the same time wall street was closed positive, being uplifted by up-crawling oil price. Shares of Apple and Boeing also went up thanks to their good performance. Not all emitents made their mark but they were compensated by sentiment from oil price.

Increase of oil price was not high, but good enough to invigorate the market. Market sales was saturated, so it was good enough to strengthen.

During closing session last Thursday (29/1), index of Dow Jones strengthened by 225.48 points (1.31%) to the level of 17,416.85. Index of S&P 500 increased by 19.09 points (95%) to the level of 2,021.25 while index of Composite Nasdaq strengthened by 45.41 points (0.98%) to the level of 4,683.41.

At home, good news breezed out. Amidst global economic uncertainty, customers needed not to worry about banks’ liquidity. All banks of BUKU 1 to BUKU IV today had liquidity instrument against average core Deposit (NCD) above minimum limit of 50%. BI’s data had it that ratio of liquidity instrument against NCD of banks per December 2014 was posted at 91.6% this ratio was bigger than the position per December 2013 at level 89,4%, meaning, bank had ready cash in case customers needed it.

Liquidity check up by banks by other means also notably healthy. Take for example ratio of ratio of liquidity ratio against Third Party Fund (DPK) on 20 banks at level 19.10% while liquidity instrument against DPK in other banks came to 19.11%. The ratio limit of 10%. This indicated that banks had sound reserve obligations.

Banks liquidity was seen to improve. By December 2014 there was extra fund, further to be placed by BI. Now in January 2015, BI’ fund was still resistant, as there was extra liquidity. Bank’s liquidity would be safeguarded through 2015. The average banks liquidity would remain to above 50%. Although safe, OJK would keep monitoring bank’s liquidity regularly every week.

Unfortunately negative news kept lurking on local stockmarkets. DPP REI had asked the Government to review Regulations on property tax including revision of classification of Super Luxurious Goods an Sales tax for luxurious goods.

DPP REI stated that REI had known Government’s objectives in pursuing income from taxation sector amounting to Rp.1,300 trillion, but the Government must also consider how to make the property industry sector grow well. REI had proposed to the Government how to increase income from property tax.

Developers already felt there had been slowdown in sales through 2014 which would predictably continue through 2015. REI feared that the slowdown might generate chain effect on other industry sectors.

Previously the Director General of Tax, Ministry of Finance was preparing revision for collection of “Income Tax for Extremely Luxurious Goods” as written in the Regulation of the Ministry of Finance (PMK) No.253/PMK/03/2008 dated December 31, 2008 on Tax Subject of certain institution as collector of tax on “goods of extremely luxurious” category. The Government was also scheming up amendment for Rule no: 130/PMK.011/2013 dated August 26, 2013 on revision of P) MK No.121/PMK.011/2013 on Luxurious goods beside automotive as subject to Sales Tax on Luxurious Goods.

DPP REI saw there was a discourse on change in taxation on taxes of ground houses and land included in “extremely luxurious goods” from the previous Rp.10 billion and for area of land of more than 500 sq meter to become Rp.2 billion and area of land of more than 400 sq meter. Furthermore tax on vertical housing classified as “extremely luxurious goods” from the previous Rp.10 billion and for builing of more than 400 sq M would be revised to Rp.2 billion for buildings of more than 150 sq meters.

Selling price of ground Houses amounting to Rp.5 million per meter (price of house plus land) and Rp.13.3 million per meter for apartments categorized as “extremely luxurious goods”. REI felt that such pricing platform was extremely impossible. Because selling price of modest Rusunami houses in greater Jakarta alone was already Rp.9 million per sq based on Government regulation no 3 year 2014. If the Government persisted to exercised revision of the Regulation, property price of Rp.2 million would be PPnBM tax imposed.

A condition as such would mean the property sector would have to bear the burden of 45% sales tax broken down as: PPn 10%, PPnBM 20%, Luxury Tax 5% and BPHTB 5%. This was no it to mention previous taxes to be borne by developers like Cintractors Tax, land acquisition, Main certificate etc, DPP REI would propose some solution to the Government.

Firstly the Government must accommodate REIT Transaction (Real Estate Investment Trust), because the policy would drum up investors and sizable fresh capital to increase income from the property sectors. As known, other countries were maing the property sector as state’s source of income sizable enough for the state.

Secondly, the Government could also make a policy to set minimum selling price of property saleable to foreigners and impose higher tax on them. Polemics over tax in the Property sector certainly means pressures on developers and emitents.

Another bad news players of the coal industry sector predicted coal business would be grim this year. Low selling price of coal and legal certainty of the mining industry was hardet challenge for the industry in 2015. The Association of Indonesian coalminers expressed their grievances no legal certainty while return ob investment was long.

The coal mining industry needed legal certainty, which must be fair and just to coalminers and mining permit holders. Renegotiation of PKP2B was exercised without observing miners interest and capability to build smelters.

Meanwhile holders of Mining Permit (iUP) had to face royalty increase which was notably high.

To illustrate, the Government’s Regulation No.9/2012 on non tax income of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stipulated Royalty for IUP coal between 3% - 7% depending on calorie degree. No the Government increased Permit Royalty to 7% to 23.5% depending on the calorie.

The second obstacle was that selling price of coal dropped, while production cost increased. The result was that some IUP holders and PKP2B Jambi and South Kalimantan stopped their mining activities temporarily. The condition caused excessive supply so it was hard to down press coal price. So far illegal supply illegal coal might come to 60 million tons per year.

The fourth obstacle was that the domestic market shrunk, while export was restricted. The fourth obstacle was that the process to increase added value of coal had been stationary. With all the problem the coalminers were expecting the Government to be more serious in managing coal industry.

By end of January, price of coal increased, but players of the industry was pessimistic it could be as high as 2 years ago. Coal benchmark price was USD 63.84 per ton which was a downturn of 22.05% compared to that of January 2014 at USD 81.9 per ton. To anticipate the case, many players were running efficiency by renegotiating prices with contractors or suppliers of oil fuel.

Pressures hardened after international financials institution Goldman Sach axed projection of all commodity sectors. Goldman lowered commodity sectors of energy, metal, plantation and animal farm to be free of underweight in 3 months.

Although big downturn was posted for prices of commodities, Goldman Sach predicted risk of commodities in the short run. Low oil price could generate inflation which affected broader commodity prices. Analysts predicted price of West Texas Intermediate (WTi) price would stay at around USD 40 per barrel until Semester I 2015 which was due to slowdown of supply and continuing capital investment in US shale gas kept continuing.

It was estimated that balance would be regained in oil price by 2016 Analysts would increase prospect of commodity sectors from neutral to over weight in the next 12 months. By ene of 2015 they saw that stock would make rating to be neutral. The price increase was followed by production margin which was estimated to become USD 65 for WTI and USD 7- for Brent oil.

From the above picture by last weekend (30/1) IHSG would stagnate in the range of 5,1245 – 5,275. Meanwhile this week there was slight strengthening in the range of 5,260 – 5,320. (SS)

Business News - February 4, 2015

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