Sunday, 10 May 2009

The Worst Stage Had Passed

Kenneth Rogoff, professor of Harvard University, Saturday [25/4] informed Business News on the conclusions of the G-7 meeting held in Washington, USA, Friday [24/4]. Based on the conclusions of the G-7 meeting which went ‘economic recovery will start to take hold in the coming months as evidence mounts that the worst of the recession is over’, Harvard University had the perception that was more or less the same. The worst, the bottom line was apparently over. In some countries signals, where consumers’ confidence level was beginning to crawl up. Meanwhile, China even had just reviewed its growth projection from around 6.0 – 6.5% to 8.0 – 8.5%. The pulsations of life was distinctly notable”.

To detect a positive signal of recovery was admittedly difficult. But at least the curve line was flattening, no longer up or down moving. In the next two or three months, certainly these positive signals would be more visible. The commitment for stimulus put in effect by all nations in the world, became a trigger of the ‘velocity’ of the world’s motion out of the recession. Today, index had shown a move toward the positive direction.

Among the grievances which was worrying was the number of toxic acids which were not completely transparent “There are still toxic assets hidden here and there, but by universal perception, the mysterious toxic assets are no longer systemic as with the explosion when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt or when Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG screamed for help to the Government [of the USA]. Now there are still homework for the Obama administration to solve once and for all General Motors, Chrysler, and Ford. After that, the homework would be less complicated. The financial sector has shown heartening data, at least Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Citigroup has proven their ability of self-restructurization”.

According to studies of the Harvard University, the above table showed a little prove how a combination of various index has shown a platform toward positive perception. “Not really significant, but the low levels or bottom records are by passed. Hopefully this trend would continue toward end of quarter III 2009, all silver linings are shining brighter. To recover completely, surely takes a little longer. But the important thing now is that the world can breathe relievedly. However, we need to be cautious in observing the still liable condition”.

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