Wednesday, 20 May 2009

Positive Reports Become More Convincing

Alexia Quadrani, JP Morgan Analyst, on Tuesday [5/5] sent Business News result of JP Morgan’s latest analysis regarding perception of Global Manufacturing Index that showed a quite significant improvement. “In the last few days, JP Morgan receives many reports from real sectors all over the world which stated that there had been an increase in manufacture performance. Productivity had surely entered a positive trend, and it seems that this trend is a quite convincing line. There is almost no more distortion signs detected in the recovery process. There was once feared to be a pseudo recovery, but with such a pattern, JP Morgan concluded that the world, or at least main countries, have entered recovery ere”.

If formerly Purchasing Managers Index [PMI] was not carefully considered, at present, almost all countries needed the latest PMI data in order to perform an analysis on the necessary attempt or maneuver, adjusting to the general trend. “Manufacture performance was certainly far from the performance standard that occurred since mid 2003. The graphic moved quite stably in less than the last five years and it fell sharply to the bottom. Based on the above graphic, it can be concluded that the bottom line had been touched around end of 2008 until early 2009. What is quite surprising is the graphic formed a V-shape. While, in fact, almost a majority of observers guessed it would from a U-shape.

According to Alexia, with a V-shaped graphic, the world can take a little relaxed breath because in early part of second half of 2009, recovery process would enter into a quite “clear” area before the world could recover in mid 2010.

India, which once showed a slow recovery trend, in the past few weeks showed a quite rapid recovery signs. “China was the first country which declared itself free from recession, followed by Japan. The world was in fear when observing the volatile condition in India. India’s PMI in April 2009 stood at level 53,3. This was very surprising since China was the first who declared itself free from recession, while in April 2009, China’s PMI only stood at level 50,1. And, China’s PMI in March stood at level 44,8”.

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