Tuesday, 19 January 2016


Amid the direction of the global economy which is still uncertain because there is no certainty from the fed about interest rate hike, coupled with the Chinese economy which is increasingly pressured, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and development (OECD) reported that the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the member states is only by 0.4% (q o q) in Q1-2015.

The Growth rate was slower that the previous quarter which is recorded at 0.5 (q o q). Although when viewed on an annual basis, the GDP rate of OECD member countries remain unchanged, which is 2% (y o y) during the quarter.

On a quarterly basis, the United Kingdom and the United States ate two countries that recorded the highest GDP growth rate among seven other major countries where each recorded a growth of 0.7% (q o q).

According to survey of the Bank of England (BOE) on market participants, most of them are expecting the BOE to raise rates within the next 12 months. Even, the BOE saw that the expectation of market participants this time was the strongest in the last four years. As is known, the interest rate set buy the BOE has not changed from its lowest level, namely 0.5%.

Related to the rate of inflation, UK inflation expectations is seen to subside to level 2.0%, down from the one in May at 2.2%. Meanwhile, inflation expectation for the next two five years does not change where it is recorded at 2.3% and 2.8%.

So far, BOE is still reluctant to raise interest rates in the term because it is too early to conclude about economic events that are happening abroad, primarily the economic slowdown in China that so far has contributed to substantial losses on the British economy. Related to this, the Bank of England signaled that it would raise interest rates in 2016.

Strengthening of Pound Exchange rate up to now is one of the factors that cause BOE to maintain low interest rates, although the rate of economic recovery looks solid.

For the Government economy, this country in Q2 has successfully recorded a GDP growth higher than the previous quarter, which is 0.4% (q o q) from 0.3% (q o q). Germany is a country that has a significant influence on the economic uncertainty. Although it had fallen, apparently toward the remainder of 2015, Germany has tried again6tt to show its strength as a developed country.

Germany’s gradual economic recovery is reflected in the data its export and import and import activities in July 2015 which has recorded faster growth rate of Germany’s imports & exports had a positive impact on the successfully booked a higher increase than the previous month.

Germany statistic agency reported that consumer price inflation rate is still stable where in August is 0.2% (y o y), the same as the recorded in August 2014. Likewise, if viewed on a monthly basis, Germany’s consumer price inflation in August is still stable which in July is recorded at 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the rate of Japan’s GDP, the third largest countries in the world, recorded a contraction of – 0.4 % (q o q). France’s GDP growth was also stagnant, while Italy’s GDP slowed in Q2 and only at 0.2% (q o q) from 0.3% (q o q) in the previous quart.

In the UE, GDP growth remained stable, recorded at 0.4% (q o q) in Q2, while in the euro area slowed down a bit at only 0.3% ( q o q) from  0.4% (q o q) in the previous quarter.

In line whit the slowdown in GDP growth among OECD members, previously OECD has lowered its forecast for global economic growth prospects. OECD considered that the place of global growth is projected to strengthen through 2015 and 2016, but is still relatively below the Growth before the crisis, where the GDP rate of the global economy in 2015 will reportedly grow by 3.1%, down from the projections released in March at 4%

Meanwhile, growth forecast in 2016 is cut from 4.3% to only 3.8%. According to the OECD, the global economy will strengthen gradually towards pre-crisis levels by the end of 2016. The organization consisting of 34 developed countries also cut its forecast of US economic growth for the period of 2015 – 2016 from 3.16 and 3% to 2% and 2.8%.

According to the organization based in Paris, the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the winter season have caused disturbance. Besides the US, the Chinese economy is also expected to grow more slowly with growth rates of 6.8% and 6.7% in 2015 and 2016.

As for the Euro zone, the OECD does not change its projections, and even raised the 2016 growth forecast to 2.1% thanks to oil prices, the weakness of the euro exchange rate and the improvement in financial conditional and the stimulus from the government.

The OECD believed that economic recovery from the global financial crisis 2018 was still weak. The Adverse effect of the weak recovery is the slow growth in developing countries, job uncertainty, and rising inequalities everywhere.

OECD considers that the decrease in private investment and government spending have blocked recovery. Many large companies are now delaying construction of new facilities or reducing spending on technology development, equipment, and services due to its financial condition. Meanwhile, governments in many countries are also reducing expenditures for infrastructure development in the framework of fiscal consolidation.

Economic activities in the future that are based on inflation available until the end of July also showed weakness in Canada, Russia, and Brazil. So far, the OECD indicators continue to show that India will be a major exception to an economic growth that tends to advance beyond China.

OECD also sees that China’s main indicators decrease again in July to 97.6 from 97.9. With a threshold of 100.0, the figures below 100.0 are a signal of economic slowdown. OECD composite leading indicators for its 34 members are also below 100.0 in July from 100.0 in June.

While, economic growth in South Africa, Rusia and Brazil in the second also fell. However, the OECD indicators show that the economy in the Euro zone will avoid further contraction in the reminder of 2015. Now, the OECD member countries continue to examine measures to be taken by China as the second largest economic power in the world.

Previously, China has aggressively loosened its economic policy by devaluating Yuan currency, lowering benchmark interest rate to 4.6%, loosening the ratio of minimum reserve requirement (GWM) in the banking sector as well as continuing to pour a large fiscal stimulus to boost its economic vitality.

China’s economic slowdown is increasingly visible, at least from data of the central bank of China (P B o C) which recorded that bank lending to the real sector declined in August from its highest level in the last six years.

With these consideration, PBoC revised the rules on the minimum reserve requirement (GWM) ratio of banks in that country in order for the banks to set aside more reserves of money into the real sector in the form of lending. PBoC allow the daily Statutory Reserves that have been defined.

The decision was made by PBoC given the number of loans disbursed by banks in China in August in only CNY 809.6 billion, lower than the one recorded in July, at CNY 1.48 trillion.

The price of crude oil continues to weaken by more than 2% after Goldman Sachs Germany’s Commerzbank cut its forecast for crude oil prices this year due fears of oversupply as a result of the slowdown of the Chinese economy.

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for 20160for US crude oil prices to USD 45 from USD 57 per barrel. While, the price of Brent oil in 2016 is at USD 49.50, down from the previous forecast at USD 62 per barrel.

According to Goldman Sachs, the global oil market is experiencing oversupply and expected that it will last until 2016. The investment bank from the United States claimed that crude oil prices could fall to the lowest position at USD 20 per barrel.

Commerzbank Germany also lowered its forecast of global crude oil prices and said that the Brent oil will possible be traded at USD 55 at the end of this year before it increased again to USD 65 per barrel at the end of 2016.

From the description above, the effects of the world economic slowdown, particularly the OECD countries, will also hit Indonesia. Therefore, the government and financial authorities in Indonesia must be able to identify these issues carefully to formulate a comprehensive economic policy package which is counter cynical in anticipation of the worse. (E) 

Business New - September 23, 2015

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