Nearly all economic indicators were showing signs of recovery. The stockmarket index continued to accelerate, Rupiah were strengthening, foreign reserves increasing, inflation under control, while economic growth were safequarded. All these indicators were the underlying factors of a fast economic growth. If the presidential election next July goes well, it was most convincing that national economic growth would be faster as per Quarter IV 2009. Such was concluded by some national economic observers.
Indonesia’s stockmarket railed on and was closed yesterday at 1,851.3 up by 37% since end of January 2008. The Rupiah exchange rate remained firm at Rp. 10.324 per USD or 5.72% stronger compared to end of 2008. Foreign reserves was posted at USD 56.6 billion, an increase of USD 5 billion against December 2008. Inflation was well guarded at low of 0.05% in the first four months of 2009. Economic growth had been well secured.
In addition to that, external confidence were building up as indicated by strong inflow of foreign capital. Foreign ownership over state bonds [SBN] was posted at USD 85.7 billion. The position of foreign net buying at stock portfolio since March until closing on Friday [16/5] was chalked up at USD 5.9 billion.
The Bottom Line Passed Already?
With these notable corrections of the economic indicators on the overall, were these signals that the lowest level of economic were already passed? Economists felt sure that the crucial points had passed as rays of hope were seen at the exit end of tunnel. Economists predicted that growth would be faster after the presidential election.
Contrary to the analysis projections, businesspeople were more cautious and choose to be prudent in responding to the positive signs, not just at home in Indonesia but also in some major states of the world. Both the Government and businesspeople were careful in embarking on Quarter II and Quarter III which were perceived as the deepest level of crisis. Therefore, the Government and private sector should strive shoulder to shoulder to succeed.
Meanwhile the general perception of foreign experts was that the gravest phase had passed the world was embarking on an era of recovery, although we should be well aware that the critical circumstance was still overshadowing the world’s economy, with the risk of slipping back in to square one. What was being awaited was the well established order of the world’s economy could be rebuilt in the Western world, upon which the rest of the world tend to lean on.