The Moneymarket
During closing session last Thursday (2/8) Rupiah was
seen to strengthen considerably against USD by four points thanks to growing
optimism triggered by meeting of the Europe Central Bank (ECB) which was
expected to stimulate the market positively.
Rupiah exchange rate value in inter-bank transaction
inched up to Rp 9,435 against the previous position of Rp 9,439 per USD. Rupiah
was still stable although the Fed had not glen any extra stimulus, which
economists predicted to be given by next September.
The market’s attention was now focused on the ECB meeting
which was being awaited for the market was expecting that the policy would
bring positive impact in the market. However the German manufactures in the
Euro region who reduced their activities could be one of Rupiah catalyst to
retun to the bearish zone. Strengthening of Rupiah was still at limited range
because market players were still waiting for outcome of ECB meeting which
might lower their interest rate.
Meanwhile the Central Board of Statistics (BPS) announced
annual inflation this year was happening through July 2011 – July 2012 at 4.5%
with highest inflation happening in the food sector. Price increase in the food
sector was noted at 7.02% which was the strongest stimulus to inflation over
the period of July 2011 – July 2012.
Significant price increase was also happening in ready
food category, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco at 5,88% and garments which increased
by 5,06% followed by increased price in education, recreation and sport at
4.2%, housing, water, electricity and fuel at 3.29%, health 2.96% and
transportation, communication and financial services at 1.87%.
Compared to national annual inflation rate of the same
period two years before, inflation rate this year was relatively lower compared
to inflation rate of July 2009 – July 2010 at 6.22% and inflation of July 2009
– July 2011 at 4.61%.
Meanwhile BPS ado released inflation rate of calendar year
(January-July 2012 at 2.5% which was relatively higher than inflation in
calendar year 2011 at 1.74%. Inflation rate of July itself was posted at 0.7%
which was also an increase compared to inflation of July 2011 at 0.67% and
inflation of May at 0.65%.
Government Optimistic about
Controlling Inflation of 2012.
Meanwhile the Government remained optimistic about
maintaining inflation of 2012 at 5.2% which was lower than the target of State
Budget (APBN-P) 2012 of 6.8% due to cancelled price increase of subsidized oil.
Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance had agreed to set inflation target
for 2013, 2014 and 2015 at 4.5%. 4.5% and 4% respectively with deviation of 1%.
The Central Board of Statistics (BPS) announced
Indonesia’s accumulated import through first Semester of 2012 (January-June)
posted surplus of USD 470.1 million. With accumulated total export of USD 96.69
billion while import was USD 96,41 billion the accumulated trade balance
through January-June was posting surplus.
Sector wise, export through First Semester of 2012 was
dominated by the industrial sector at the value of USD 57.76 billion or 59.62%
of total export. Furthermore export value also supported by the oil-gas sector
at the value of USD 20.06 billion supported by export of mining commodity worth
USD 16,53 billion (17.07%).
Meanwhile export of commodities of the agricultural
sector was considerably low at the value of USD 2,53 billion or 2,53% of total
export. By sector, only export of minery products which recorded increase of 4.9%, meanwhile export of
industrial products of semester 1, 2012 surprisingly dropped by 4.85% against
same period of last year. The same was with export of agricultural products
which slumped by 1.35%.
Regretfully import-export balance of July still recorded
deficit of USD 1.32 billion. This was because export value of June dropped by
16.44% while import value rose by 10.71% against previous year.
Total export of June 2012 which reached USD 15.36 billion
dropped by 8.7% against May which was posted at USD 16.72 billion. Total import
was posted at USD 16.72 billion. Total import of June 2012 rose by 10.71% to
become USD 165.69 billion against June of last year at Rp 15.07 billion. The
deficit of Trade Balance gave negative sentiment to Rupiah this week which was
estimated to move in the range of Rp 9,435 – Rp 9,465 perUSD.
Meanwhile Euro’s exchange rate value against USD and
Japanese Yen weakened after President of Europe’s Central Bank (ECB) Mario
Dragh failed to announce a definite plan to troubleshoot debt crisis in the
Euro zone. Euro slumped by 0.6% to the level of 95.30 Yen on Thursday (2/8)
after previously strengthening by 1.1%. This common currency of 17 states then
inched down by 0.4% against USD to become USD 1,2180 after previously strengthening
by 1,5%, i.e. in the position of USD 1.2405 which was the highest level since
July 5, 2012. However USD weakened by 0,3% against yen to become 78,24 Yen.
The Capital Market
Index of IHSG during transaction last weekend (3/8) tend
to slump in line with weakening of global shares. It seemed that negative
sentiment spattered from the statement of ECB leader which disappointed the
market.
The global factor again suppressed through disappointment
of investors and market players as there was no purchase of Spanish and Italian
bonds. Moreover index of Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 92.18 points
(0.71%) to the level of 12,878.88 Index of S&P 500 also dropped by 10.14
points (0.74%) to the level of 1,365.00 while index of Nasdaq Composite lost
10.44 points to (0.36%) to the level of 2,909.77.
Meanwhile IHSG last Thursday (2/8) was closed lower by 37
points (0.90%) to the level of 4,093.11 with total transaction amounting to
5.44 million shares worth Rp 3.87 trillion. Index of all sectors of shares
dropped. Foreign investors were still recorded as net buyers at the regular
market with buys amounting to Rp 63.1 billion. The best selling shares were:
ASII, BBRI, BBCA, ADRO, and KLF.
Technically downturn of IHSG had been maximized to the
support level of 4,090 which was tested. Chances were IHSG would have ascended
during closing session last Friday (3/8) in the range of 4,060 – 4,130 with
varied sentiments and tendency to rise.
Beware of Possible IHSG
Downturn Toward Weekend
Some stock players still rated IHSG movement last Friday
(3/8) would be signified by negative sentiment. Therefore analysts reminded the
market to be on the alert of possible downturn of IHSG to ward weekend. There
were some global sentiments which would influence index, such as: outcome of
the Europe Central Bank (ECB) meeting which was disappointing and release of
data of factory orders in June which dropped by 0,5%.
In addition to that, weekly data of unemployment claim in
the USA also rose to 365,000 against the previous 357,000. In view of the grim
economic data, index of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) slumped by 192
points.
Previously Edwin analysts already predicted index would
enter the correction phase this August with potential downturn as much as 100 to
200 points, although over the month surely IHSG might rise or fall in line with
completed financial release of Semester 1 financial Report after dividend were
distributed toward long Lebaran holiday.
Some stockmarket players predicted that movement of index
which was very volatile would continue till next week, to be exact August 2012.
The rated that under the circumstances the chances for loss or fail was
considerably big.
Weakening of IHSG last Thursday (2/8) was a continued
trigger for correction per July 23 last where top form had perfectly shaped up
but today again weakening and showing reverse motion. Therefore there were two
possibilities: IHSG would crash to the level of 3,800 or this correction was an
instrument for catapult that would shoot IHSG up to as high as 4,200.
Spectral shares still had the potential jack up index
even higher. It was recorded that the average performance of net profit of
emitents of the property sector through Semester 1 (year on year) was
predictably highest compared to nine other sectors recorded at the Indonesia
Security Exchange (BEI). Significant sales growth served as main propeller of
net profit growth of property emitents. The projection emitent’s net profit was
higher, possibly around 20% - 15%.
Meanwhile a number of analyst rated that six shares
entering the LQ45 list had considerably high liquidity with the potential to be
actively marketed at the secondary market. The fundamental performance of the
six emitents was also perceived as good so they had the potential for
transaction with better liquidity by investors.
Last week PT BEI released six new emitents included in LQ
45 shares. The six shares were: PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) who had
market capitalization of Rp 32.78 trillion, PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) Rp
20.47 trillion, PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) Rp 13.73 trillion, PT Sentul
City Tbk (BKSL) Rp 6.91 trillion, PT BW Plantation Tbk (BWPT) Rp 6.01 trillion
and PT Indotraco Penta Tbk (INTA) Rp 2,51 trillion.
A little positive sentiment might be generated from the
planned IPO release by some new candidate emitents. All in all IPO in Semester
II remained highly prospective and were well responded by investors. There were
12 companies who were ready to release shares in BEI in Semester II. Some of
them were predicted to be stormed by investors, like PT Citra Borneo Indah, PT
Waskita Karya, PT Semen Baturaja, PT Aero Wisata Catering Services, PT Drilling
Service Indonesia, (a Pertamina subsidiary company) and PT PLN Batam.
Prospect of Semester II IPO
Remains to Stay Bright
The stockmarket authorities and analyst were certain that
IPO of shares in Semester II remained prospective and were well responded by
investors. Price of IPO shares at the secondary market was predicted to
increase thanks to sound fundamental economy and prospective market condition.
According to analysts, beside IPO value which was
considerably high, performance of the six companies were also good. Six other
companies who were ready to go public were PT Inti Bangun Sejahtera, which
would offer 15% of shares worth Rp 192 billion, PT Provident Argo with 20% of
shares worth Rp 500 billion and PT express Trasido Utama who released 20% of
shares with targeted fund of Rp 800 – Rp 900 billion. Furthermore PT Pelayaran
Nelly Dewi Putri (20% shares), PT Persib Bandung Bermartabat (targeted fund Rp
200 billion) and PT Cipaganti Citra Graha with targeted fund of Rp 750 billion.
Other factiors which might stimulate investors were stock
split activities by emutents who were rated as positive phenomenon which would
increase shares liquidity of the related emitent. Beside increasing liquidity
of shares retail investors could also easily buy shares of bigger value at
affordable price.
With emitents doing corporate acts, it was believed that
the money market would be made merrier by retail investors. In the few months
some emitents had made corporate acts breaking shares value, among other PT
Astra International Tbk (ASTII) and PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF).
This corporate act could draw foreign investors to buy
corporate shares. Usually after stock split, performance of emitent’s shares
became more appealing. On the other hand, corporate acts made shares liquid
enough to be traded. So it came as no surprise if there were emitents who were
interested in doing this corporate act.
For that matter this week IHSG would be projected to
movie in the range of 4,050 – 4,120 with tendency to thinly increase. Second
layer and third layer shares, strengthened with IPO outcome were the reasons for
IHSG increase.
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