The Money market
The value of Rupiah against USD was downpressed by 30 points last Friday morning
(20/7) driven by crisis outspread in Europe. Value of Rupiah in inter-bank
transaction weakened by 30 points to the position of Rp 9,470 against the
previous Rp 9,440 per USD.
Rumors was that risk of bankruptcy that befell on Spain
had magnified crisis outspread in Euro and the condition was one of the
catalysts of Rupiah to be once again outpowered by USD. The fiscal problem in
Spain was far from over and the Government must be responsible to help local
banks in solving their financing problem.
Meanwhile economic data of the USA which was not so
impressive forced to investors to invest their assets in USD because it was
believed to be able to protect value. Investors were seeking for alternative
investment which were safe from risky assets which jacked up demand for USD.
Data of US economy i.e. good sales of new houses showed
positive result, which signaled economic recovery of the nation. Economic
recovery of the USA built investors’ confidence which encouraged them to enter
into risky assts in the emerging markets. Moody’s international rating agency
which again put Indonesia’s rating at Investment Grade was an catalysts that
Rupiah was in a stable position.
Previously USD exchanger rate value fell against
Pounsterling and inched down against Euro last Friday (20/7) because weak US
data caused suspended sanction on Euro currency. The news that unemployment
claim rose energized poundsterling by 0.4% to become USD 1,5722 while Euro
inched up to USD 1.2282.
The market’s sentiment heightened last week because data
showed that mortgage in America was getting better. Meanwhile for the most part
company’s profit had not done anything according to investors’ low expectation.
USD value inched down by 0.3% to become Yen 78,59 and inched down to Swiss
Franc 1.0074. Meanwhile USD slumped, more than 1.2% against Russian Rubbel at
31.83 due to oil price, Australian dollar inched up by 0,6% to become USD
1.0428.
From the above picture, Rupiah development this week was
determined by external factor. However, investors must also internal factor
where Bank Indonesia would be the focus of attention. It was believed that BI
would still control Rupiah value against USD at home so the pressure would not
be felt too hard.
The euphoria of crisis solution in Uni Europe was not
materialized at operational level so investors were still pessimistic; a
condition as such strengthened pressures of Euro against USD which had its
impact on Rupiah.
The Capital Market
Index of IHSG and Indonesia Security Exchange (BEI) last
weekend (20/7) was opened to strengthen, Index of BEI was opened to rise by
0.06 points (0.99%) to the position of 4,096.26. Indonesia’s stockmarket was
predicted to continue strengthening; shares of the consumers sector could be a
wise alternative.
During closing session on Thursday (19/7) IHSG rose by
14.561 points or 0.35% to become 4,096.196. Meanwhile index of LQ 45 strengthened
by 2.216 points or 0.31% to become 700,124 Index of BEI was getting closer to
4,100 driven by strengthening of regional stockmarket. This was the impact of
statement by Ben Bernanke, the number one man in the Fed, that chances were
small that the US economy was going to fall into recession. In addition to that
there were chances of new stimulus package, quantitative easing of the third
phase being released, and positive financial report to be released in quarter
two 2012.
At home in Indonesia, it was predicted that Indonesian
emitents would book quarterly performance which was propelled by increased net
profit of emitents of the banking sector in Indonesia who managed to make
profit that grew by 25% - 27% through Quarter II 2012. Thanks to strong growth
of domestic emitents, IHSG would predictably continue strengthening by end of
July with the potential to rise to 4,200. For this week, the range of 4,100 –
4,250 seemed reasonable.
If index strengthened last week, it could be benefited by
investors to realize profit so index could move in the range of 4,075 – 4,150.
So far strengthening of IHSG had been going on for five consecutive days. Under
such circumstances, some emitents of the consumers sector like Unilever,
(UNVR), Indofood Success Makmur and Indofood CPB Sukses Makmur (ICPB) could be
investors’ target.
Meanwhile other stockmarkets in Asia also strengthened.
Many of released emitent’s report showed positive outcome. Index of Shanghai
rose by 15.74 percent or 0.73% to become 2,184.84. Index of Hang Seng soared up
by 319.17 points or 1.66% to become 19,559.05 Index of Nikkei 225 strengthened
by 68.81 points or 0.79% to become 8,795.55. The development influenced IHSG
ands BEI to continue strengthening and trying to return to the level of 4,100.
Until 09.30 wib the local stockmarket last week (20/7)
was opened strong, following the regional stockmarket where the majority of
shares were posting increase. IHSG inched up by 11.35 points (0.28%) to become
4,092.99.
The positive sentiment from the fact that companies in
the USA and Europe had been able to make profit breezed out hope amidst
negative sentiment from the threat of global economic slowdown. Investors were
also anticipating release of emitents’ financial report of Semester I/2012. If companies’
financial performance were good, IHSG would move up.
The Wall Street stockmarket was signified by
strengthening for there consecutive days, driven by strengthening of shares of
the technology sector. Marketplayers were also expecting additional stimulus
from the Government following weakening of USD. During financial reporting
season this time, many emitents reported higher performance, better than market
expectations. Even emitents like IBM, e-Bay and Qualcom revised their target
performance this year to higher level.
Europe was slightly at ease while reports disclosed that
emitent’s performance, although not soaring high, had surpassed market’s
expectation. The factor that held back stockmarket’s movement was poor
manufacturing data and employment data in addition to downfall of Morgan
Stanley which made shares drop more than 5%.
Somehow America’s poor economic data made marketplayers
expect for additional stimulus (QE-III) of the Federal Reserve Bank. Governor
of the Fed, Fred Bernanke in his speech early last week promised to do that if
deemed necessary. All in all, on Thursday local Time (19/7) index of Dow Jones
Jumped up by 34.66 points (0.27%) to the level of 12,943.36. Index of Standard
& Poor’s 500 rose by 3.73 points (0.27%) to the level of 1,376.51. Index of
Composite Nasdaq strengthened to the level
of 23.30 points (0.79%) to the level of 2,965.90 points.
Now investors were focusing attention on two world’s
figures. Firstly China’s Prime Minister Wien Jiabao who was a key figure in
regional condition as observed by investors, who reminded that the weakening of
employment projection and n\bad outlook of Asia’s corporate performance as the
effect of crisis that befell on Europe.
Secondly, global investors were also waiting for further
testimonial by Governor of US Central Bank Ben Bernanke. Previously Bernanke
stated he would prepare a policy to stimulate market growth if the employment
market was not getting any better. If the QE-III policy were released, supply
of USD would abound which would bring positive impact on Asian currencies
including Rupiah, as well as giving positive sentiment to the global
stockmarkets, including Indonesia’s stockmarket.
Business News - July 25, 2012
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