Tuesday, 10 September 2013


The course of Rupiah value and IHSG index at the Indonesia Stock Exchange [BEI] over the week would be governed by combined external and internal factors. On the external side, rumors about termination of stimulus program in the USA seemed to fade out which would bring notably significant sentiment on Rupiah.

On the internal side, BI’s policy to run foreign currency auction and performance of emitents of the first semester this year would inject better sentiment. Therefore Rupiah was estimated to consolidate, while IHSG a chance to rebound

The Moneymarket

Rupiah exchange rate value against USD at the inter-bank spot market Jakarta last week [26/7] was predicted to consolidate. The positive external sentiment made it hard for Rupiah to return to the positive zone. Referring to the latest US data which was predictably weak apparently it give negative sentiment to USD. Fore example, data of unemployment claim in the USA was already predicted to increase from 334 thousand to 340 thousand. The same was with release of order of durable goods which was predicted to slowdown from 3.7% to 1.3%.

Also released inflation data from Japan which was predicted to increase. This could reduce incentive of Bank of Japan [BoJ] to further ease their monetary policy. Therefore supposedly the external sentiment was positive on Rupiah. Somehow it was still hard for Rupiah to strengthen; because this week the market had important data which might underscore the economic challenges faced by Indonesia.

On August 1 next data on import-export would be released. Analyst and economists had it that it was hard for the market to obtain fundamental data which were positive at home so it was just as hard for the market to expect Rupiah strengthening although the USD was weakening. Last week end, Rupiah was consolidating in the range of Rp10,150 – Rp10,250.- per USD. As footnote, Rupiah value against USD at the inter-bank spot market Jakarta last Thursday [25/7/] was closed to weaken by 10 points [0.09%] to the position of Rp 10,260,-/Rp 10,275.

It regard to market’s anxiety over some US data which were positive and might lead the Fed to reduce their stimulus Rupiah weakened by 25 points to become Rp10,275 against the previous Rp10,250 per USD. Weakening of Rupiah was due to growing anxiety over mortgage sales in the USA which was positive and might drive the Fed to reduce their stimulus.

The Fed would respond to data to determine whether to increase or reduce bond buying’s. Over the week marketplayers would focus on ASN economic data and the plan of quantitative easing by the Fed. At home BI to lessen intervention on Rupiah to lessen capital outflow.

Besides, Rupiah motion was still overshadowed by weakening of some Asian currencies against USD. Slow recovery of the manufacturing industry in China and some countries tend to put Rupiah in the negative zone. One thing was sure Rupiah’s position was on the bottom line once more, the lowest in four years or since September 2009.

Rupiah step-down had been going on continually over the past 10 days since Friday [12/7]. BI suspected around 15% of private oversea debt held high risk as they were not hedge-protected. This statement triggered negative sentiment in the market about Rupiah although BI warned business players who had overseas debt to be careful about monetary exchange rate by doing hedging.

BI’s data had it that Indonesia’s total overseas debt by end of May 2013 came to USD 258.5 billion of which the private sector’s debt constituted USD 31.55 billion. Around 67% or USD 73.66 billion of overseas debts were in USD. Meanwhile total overseas debt of the private sector due by June – December 2013 came to USD 24.17 billion or around 18.37% of total private debt.

Natural hedging was exercised without using monetary instrument or derivatives. One of the models of natural hedging was to have income in the same denomination as forex debt. Meanwhile hedging through various financial instrument were in many forms like fixed contract, swap, and option. One of the instrument, FX Swap by auction today was being developed by BI.

BI rated that Indonesia’s rating of stable must be maintained through coordinated policy with the Government. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus DW Martowardojo said that the rating was obtained from Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd [JCR] who maintained Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB-/stable outlook.

Japan Rating Agency recommended 3 key factors to support their appraisal. Firstly sustainable Indonesia’s economy supported by strong domestic demand. Secondly, low public debt as result of prudent fiscal management. And thirdly, resistance to external shocks.

Affirmation of Indonesia’s rating by JCR proved that Indonesia’s economy was relatively stable amidst global economic slowdown full of uncertainty. The momentum needed to be maintained through coordinated action between the Government and BI so healthy economy could be well maintained and better rating could be attained  
To strengthen Rupiah, BI admitted they were probing on the possibility of Foreign Exchange Swap [Fx Swap] more than once in a week as they were highly enthusiastic about stabilizing Rupiah. The FX Swap more than once in a week could be solution to excessive demand for foreign currency in the market whereby to reduce pressures on Rupiah.

The monetary instrument [Fx Swap] was needed by investors as it might be used to create a good condition for investors or forex owners. Besides, auction of Fx Swap could bring better assurance to forex owners. If forex owners released their fund now, in the next three or six months they could obtain foreign currency based on agreed price.

This auction of Fx Swap was part of the policy mix run by BI with three objective. Firstly it was part of monetary operations run by BI for managing forex liquidity and Rupiah in the market. Secondly it was meant to be hedging for investors and business people against the risk of Rupiah fluctuation as related to need for liquidity of forex and Rupiah. Thirdly it was one of BI’s effort to enhance in-depth market probing through efficient and transparent pricing. Besides the Fx Swap was optional instrument so the market did not have to solely depend on cash market probing through efficient and transparent pricing. Besides the Fx Swap was optional instrument so the market did not have to solely depend on cash market in managing their liquidity.

As known, BI on July 18 last had run Swap of foreign currency auction at the spot market to the amount of USD 600 million with return tenure of one month, two months and three months. Twenty banks participated in the Fx Swap based on exchange rate of Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate [Jisdor] worth Rp10,056 per USD. The total transaction of the Fx Swap jumped up to USD 1.24 billion, but BI only absorbed USD 600 million, specified as USD 330 million with tenure of one month and the rest tenure of six months.

Weakening of Rupiah was inevitable because of the US Quantitative Easing Plan of the monetary stimulus which had its impact on USD strengthening resulting in currency weakening in many countries. Nevertheless BI urged businesspeople not to take advantage from Rupiah weakening as it involved risk, so risk management should be observed instead of just making profit from Rupiah weakening as it might incur loss.

Meanwhile Japanese Yen was strengthening against some of the world’s leading currencies. Victory of the Japanese Democratic Liberal Party led by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the High Assembly election in Japan, jacked up strengthening of yen. The USD-JPY exchange rate weakened by 0.72% to become 99,93; EUR-JPY weakened by 0.36% to become 0.36% to become 131.79 and AUD-JPY weakened by 0.44% to become 91.9130 against previous day.

Supposedly victory of the Abe’s party enhanced Yen’s weakening; however, because at the same time USD was also under pressure due to uncertainty of the QE monetary stimulus plan by the Fed, so weakening of Yen was interrupted. The market who was disappointed by indecisiveness of the fed about QE monetary stimulus causes heavy pressure of USD including pressure by Yen,

Yen was also sustained by technical factor due to weakening [of other currencies] recently. Strengthening was also happening as equilibrium was arrived at between Yen’s exchange rate value and Japan’s economic recovery which was now underway. However the character of yen’s strengthening might change, being influenced by release of US mortgage sales data in June which was predicted to increase.

BI’s effort to maintain Rupiah stability was handicapped by high import of food for domestic need as economic structure was not reformed yet. And yet on the other hand, high inflation was also threatening, among others due to limited capacity of supply of volatile food.

Today import was greater than export, so Indonesia was now in a condition of “spending bigger than income”. Such was actually disheartening because the problem was structural. So it was hard for BI to struggle alone to overcome Rupiah weakening, since Rupiah had been weakening since deficit in current transaction had been going on for seven quarters. Each year import grew bigger. So naturally weakening represented fundamental economy. Therefore projection of Rupiah exchange rate value in the range of Rp10,100 – Rp10,250 seemed reasonable and rational.

The Capital Market

Last week end [26/7] IHSG was opened to strengthen by 0.16% to the level of 4,681% followed by index of LQ45 shares by 0.19% to the level of 780.63. Index of JII shares strengthened by 0.12% to the level of 157.86. The shares sector strengthened, among others infra structure strengthening by 1.05% to the level  of 1,031 followed by the mining sector which strengthened by 0.37% to the level of 1,347.53 and the finance sector strengthening by 0.27% to the level of 595.09.

IHSG was predicted to continue correction especially when Rupiah exchange rate again slumped. Besides, correction at the bind market continued.  Sentiment in line sector would specially have negative sentiment in line with significant correction on CPO Malaysia in the past 3 days.

A day before [15/7], driven by negative sentiment which was still strong, IHSG was closed to drop by 43.99 points or 0,93% to the position of 4,674.12. Meanwhile index of LQ 45 weakened by 10.27 points [1.30%] to the level of 779.08. Weakening of index was due to sentiment from the Fed’s plan to reduce stimulus this September. The anxiety was due to sales of new homes in the USA in June which reached highest level in the past 5 years. Such indicated construction of residential areas would jack up us economic growth in the second half of this year.

At home, pressures on index also came from Rupiah exchange rate value was still restless. It was projected that last week end [26/7] IHSG would fluctuate with tendency to weaken moderately in the range of 4,650 – 4,700. One of the catalyst factor was report of financial report of emitents of Semester I this year.

Meanwhile at the regional stockmarket index of Hang Seng once weakened by 67.97 points [0.31%] to the level of 21,900.96. Index Nikkei-225 down by 168.35 points [1.14%] to the level of 14,562.93 and Straits Times weakened by 34.28 points [1.07%] to the position of 3,239.15.

What the market focus their attention on was BI’s decision to increase BI arte which was perceived variously. Many were disappointed but there were even more who were delighted. There were disappointed because increase of BI rate was not the best option to counter USD strengthening against Rupiah. 
But there were those were happy, les’s say the managers of the Dapen Pension Plan with increase of BI rate by 75 basic points to become 6% they now could enjoy high interest rate, even above the interest rate of the Deposit Insurance Agency [LPS] which today was at the level of 6.25%. Moreover at the time when the condition of other instruments like Reksadana were in a disadvantageous condition.

Now there were more and more pension and insurance agencies who shifted their fund to conventional investment like fixed deposit and bonds, there were even banks who offered interest above BI benchmark rate. Depenso and Jamsostek had their different ways. This workers insurance agencies prepared fund of Rp45 trillion to be invested in bonds. Today around Rp46 trillion or 40.29% of fund was invested by Jamsostek in bonds, only 31.42% was invested in fixed deposit.

With increased bank interest rates, yields of bonds were soaring up accordingly, this yield was predicted to increase again in 2014. At the time there were more than Rp32 trillion of bonds which were due. Normally, to settle funds due the Government or corporate would issue new bonds with high incentives. Naturally, the bonds to be chosen by Jamsostek must meet certain criteria like A grade at minimum.

Accordingly, over the week IHSG was predicted to strengthen moderately. Investors were advised to buy premium shares and be domestic-oriented since consumption level was still high. Besides, highly capitalized shares ware also attractive targets to hunt as they had strong resistance against the effect of economic slowdown.

Financial report of the first semester this year was released, so the people tend to wait till all emitents were ready could serve as positive catalyst to portray strengthening of index, because performance of big emitents were able to meet market expectation. In general financial report of highly capitalized emitents already reflected stability of quarter I-2013 which rated tend to be stable and continue in quarter II-2013.

The only thing was that amidst threat of increased bank rate due to high inflation, business of property emitents was apparently still promising. The success of some property emitents to enhance presales, which was real income to the company, would at least build confidence among developers about their performance till end of year.

For example, developers at the Kelapa Gading District, PT Summarecon Agung Tbk [SMRA] which had reaped sales worth Rp2 trillion in the past 6 months. This positive performance was attributed to project of Kelapa Gading, Summarecon Serpong and Summarecon Bekasi. Nearly 50% or around Rp1 trillion pre-sales was made by the summarecon Kelapa Gading only contributed around Rp500 billion, the rest obtained through sales of project in Bekasi.

The same was experienced by PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk [BSDE] which by up to Semester 1 this year succeeded in making sales of Rp4.19 trillion. This income was a growth of 79% compared to marketing sales of the same period last year, i.e. the company only made sales of Rp2.35 trillion.

Project wise, BSD City as flagship project of the Sinar Mas Land were the main contributors in obtaining sales till Semester I this year, i.e. 82% while Kota Wisata was the second biggest contributor with 7% while Grand Wisata Bekasi contributed 5%, etc.

Meanwhile PT Sentul City Tbk [BKSL] projected to make pre-sales of Rp720 billion till Semester I this year. This amount was double the amount of the income during pre sales of the same period last year, i.e. Sentul City only succeeded in making Rp300 billion. This positive performance was the fruits of jacking up sales of landed houses sector, apartments and commercial project.

However with BI’s new Loan to Value policy, the positive performance of property emitents was predicted not to last long. In semester I till end of this year, the property sector might show significant growth. This was because interest rate of last year which was still low. In 2014 till 2015 next performance of this sector would drop. Lessened demand and accumulated project which were previously built made emitents’ performance of this sector slightly suppressed.
Business New - July 31, 2013    

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