Although the agreement to extend bailout for Cyprus was arrived at, the
economic prospect of Cyprus was still under question and was the focus of
attention of many circles. One thing was sure that the case of Cyprus blinked
negative signal amidst hard process of economic recovery after saving Greece
sometimes ago.
The case of Cyprus was a warning to market players that most probably
the process of economic recovery would be slower than expected. Most probably
by early next year the process of economic recovery would be felt with the role
of some countries like Germany, France and Italy as propellers. One thing was
certain that by this week the situation in Cyprus would be observed by market
players all over the world with reluctance and doubt.
The Money Market
Rupiah exchange rate value against USD in inter-bank transaction in
Jakarta last Thursday morning [28/3] moved up by 3 points to the level of Rp9,
722 per USD against the previous Rp9, 725. Rupiah value was moving up in line
with cooling down of negative sentiment from the Cyprus crisis.
Market players were expecting the Cyprus Government to control the
capital sector to keep investor’s fund from flowing out. The Cyprus Government
was also expected to prevent fix-deposit flight because big depositors of that
country had the risk of being axed by 40% meanwhile the condition at home was
stable enough thanks to the still growing fundamental economy.
By estimate Rupiah exchange rate value would tend to move within narrow
range during end of session last week [28/3] in the span of Rp9, 700 – Rp9, 740
per USD. Previously, Rupiah exchange rate value against USD on Wednesday [27/3]
managed to strengthen to the level of Rp9, 725 against the previous Rp9, 736
per USD.
Last week many analysts were worried about the heavy inflow of capital
to the stock market amidst increasing demand for forex by importers a situation
which was disadvantageous to local currency. Naturally, if stock of forex were limited,
it would elevate the forex value. After moving up during transaction last
Tuesday [27/3] USD index was still strengthening on Wednesday [27/3] against
main currencies of the world. USD index was opened at 82.86. The positive
sentiment against USD was still strong and was at highest level in the past
seven months. Up moving trend was still apparent although the National
Association of Realtors had just announced that performance of the mortgage
sector was flashing not-so-good signal.
The development was indicated by downturn in the economic indicator of
Pending Home Sales which weakened to the level of 0.4% against the previous
4.5%. The downturn showed worse performance compared to some economists’
estimate who predicted that the downturn would only be as low as -0.3%.
The USD seemed still to excel in spite of downturn in the mortgage
sector, driven by worsening situation that befell on Europe, where Euro was USD
rival. The plan to control capital flow made Europe less attractive and less
secure as investment place which on the contrary enhance market’s interest in
USD.
During transaction in the Asia region last Thursday [28/3] Euro value
seemed to continue to weaken against USD. Euro was still at low level in the
last four months against USD amidst worries over the future prospect of Europe
bailout program. Marketplayers feared that the pre-requirement for banking
re-structurization were applied on Cyprus it would serve as template for rescue
program of other troubled countries in Europe.
Europe was in the trend of biggest weekly downturn in the past seven
weeks. Euro’s weary condition was triggered by stagnation in the political
system in Italy. After an election of unclear result in Italy, no Government
was ever established so far. Today was the deadline for formation of a
coalition Government in Italy.
In Europe, banks were starting to operate since Thursday after closing
for two weeks, to be exact since March 16 last when Uni Europe presented their
plan to tax fix-deposits in banks. The agreement finally arrived at between the
Government’s of Cyprus and Troika was to close the Cyprus Popular Bank Plc,
resulting in loss of un-insured deposits.
Last Thursday Euro was seen to be in the position of USD 1, 2781. Euro’s
course tends to be stagnant compared to the position in the closing session at
USD 1, 2780. Once Euro slumped as low as USD 1, 2752, the lowest since November
21 2012 last.
Up and down of Euro against USD was predicted to be still continuing
downturn this week. As known there was no positive sentiment which was able to
direct Euro to be continued this week, predictably Euro would mark movement in
the range of 1, 2750 – 1, 2820 per USD.
Meanwhile Rupiah value over the week was predicted to be in the range of
Rp 9, 690 – Rp 9, 735 with tendency to strengthen slightly. Macro economic
advancement as indicator served as catalyst of Rupiah strengthening in narrow
span. Bank Indonesia stated that based on Price Monitoring Survey [SPH] till
the third week of March there was inflation of 4.49%.
Inflation occurred mainly due to increased price of onions and garlic.
The 0.49% inflation was above the average inflation of March 2007 – 2012 at
0.17% inflation caused by red onion price was 0.38% and garlic’s 0.21%. Yet
other food commodities like rice, beans and eggs were having deflation.
Although inflation of March was higher than the average of 5 previous months,
BI was still optimistic that inflation of 2012 was still in accordance with BI
target i.e. 4.5% plus minus 1%. This was inclusive of Provincial Minimum Wages
[UMP] and Basic Electricity Tariff [TDL] on condition that the Government was
able to control food prices.
The Capital Market
Index of IHSG sank by 23 points due to acts of profit taking.
Fortunately, index still managed resettle at the level of 4, 900 thanks to
shares of the infra-structure sector. Starting transactions last weekend,
[28/3] IGSG was opened to slump by 14, 470 points [0.29%] to the level of 4,
913.632 due to selling pressures since early session.
Stockholders were starting to take advantage of index position which
scored highest record. Since opening session, selling spree heightened and
index dropped to its low position at 4, 905.555. The targets of selling were
shares which were previously already high.
During transaction in session 1 last Thursday [28/3] IHSG again inched
down by 23. 688 points [0, 48%] to the level of 4, 904.414. Meanwhile index of
LQ 45 was axed by 4. 472 points [0.54%] to the level of 829.939.
Infra-structure-based shares were the target of selective buying, which made it
the only sector that strengthened. This strengthening managed to keep index at
the psychological level of 4, 900.
Second tier shares of the mix industry and basic industry were most
affected by profit taking. The same thing happened to premium shares especially
commodities and banking. Transactions were quite merry with frequency posted at
97, 177 times including 5.087 billion shares worth Rp 3. 153 trillion. There
were 97 shares which rose, 145 shares fell and 93 shares remained stationary.
Meanwhile stockmarkets in Asia sank deeper due to mounting fear of the
financial crisis in Europe. Compared to other stockmarkets in Asia, correction
of IHSG was not too deep. Index of Composite Shanghai fell by 60.66 points
[2.64%] to the level of 2, 240.60 Index of Hang Seng dropped by 245 points
[1.09%] to the level of 22,219.37 Index of Nikkei 225 sank by 200.56 points
[1.61%] to the level of 12, 293.23 Index of Straits Times inched down by 4.10
points [0.12%] to the level of 3, 308.93.
Shares in the Wall Street stockmarket, USA were also corrected after
fears mounted over crisis in Uni Europe [UE] toward rescue of the Republic of
Cyprus by UE and IMF. Marketplayers focused their attention on developments in
Europe, not just on Cyprus but also on Italy where the condition was unstable.
The shaky condition in Italy posed as new anxiety, various grievances
that came from Italy did not make people feel any better to offer any solution
in the near future. Shares of the technology sector were moving the mixed way.
Shares of apple weakened by 2%, Google slumped by 1.2% but shares of Oracle
rose by 1.3% and Amazone increased by 1.9% .
Previously during transaction on Wednesday [27/3] Index of Dow Jones had
weakened by 33.49 points to the level of
14,526.16. Index of SP 500 inched down by 0.92 points [0.06%] to the level of
1,562.65 while index of Composite Nasdaq thinned by 4.04 points [0.12%] to the
level of 3,256.52.
Performance of the Asian and US regional shares would bring direct impact
on IHSG which by closing session last week was predicted to be in the range of
4,890 – 4,920 with the tendency to inch up. Report of emitents’ performance
which was positive on the average motivated marketplayers to do net buying.
Strengthening of IHSG would still continue this week in the range of 4,910 –
4,950 in tandem, with return of investors from the Good Friday long weekend.
Shares of the highly capitalized banking industry was reckoned to be the
stock leader in the rising IHSG year-to-date toward end of quarter I 2013.
Investors still appreciated performance of Indonesia’s leading banks for being
able to show stable performance with the support of low BI’s benchmark rate of
5.75%.
Based on data of the Indonesia Security Exchange [BEI] per March 25
last, 4 of 5 top shares which rose high with highest contribution to IHSG
upturn was shares of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk [BBRI] which rose by 23.7%
contributing 46.6 basic point against IHSG increase and PT Bank Central Asia
Tbk [BBCA] growing by 19.8% or 46.6 basic points.
Meanwhile PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk [TLKM] was 18.2% and 46.4
basic points, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk [BMRI] 17.9% and 33.7 basic points and Bank
Negara Indonesia Tbk [BBNI] 25.7% and 22.3 basic point.
From early year till March 25, IHSG was seen to strengthen by 10.68%,
increasing by 526 points. Although not being a top gainer, the capitalization
magnitude of the five emitents made their shares increase to be highly
influential against IHSG increase.
The contribution of these five leading movers now came to 194 points or
equal to 36% of total increase of index by 526 points. The contribution value,
beside calculated on the basis of shares increase was also based on ration
against index as a whole. As per March 26 last total market capitalization of
the five shares came to Rp1,011 trillion or equal to 21.5%of total IHSG market
capitalization amounting to Rp4,704 trillion.
The high profitability of these four banks had attracted investors,
especially foreign investors to buy shares. Profitability, which was measured
by return on equity of the four banks came to 26.7%. this profitability was
regarded as among the highest in the world. For example the average ROE among
banks in America was only 9%.
There was expectation that growth of banking credit could reach 20% -
25% to fulfill financing for economic growth. The credit channeled to the big
banks was would probably be pipelined for infrastructure building. Besides, low
inflation would keep BI rate at low level.
The domestic financing structure was relatively healthy while cost of
fund was not too expensive. Meanwhile the total amount of credit channeled by
big domestic banks to the mining sector was not too sizable, so the
non-performing loan level remained safe. This year a market expectation on
bank’s credit growth was higher than last year, so many investors accumulated
shares of the banking sector. Capital of the national banking sector was
adequate enough to support the credit expansion where capital adequacy ratio
[CAR] came to 17.4% today – enough for jacking up credit growth.
The view confirmed the fact that shares of the banking sector was
relatively defensive in early 2013 where high sentiment of inflation caused by
increased food commodity did not influence performance of the banking sector.
Shares of the banking sector were also advantaged by booming of the property
sector in Indonesia. Meanwhile increased index of the property sector also
advantaged the banking sector.
In the past 5 years return on investment in the banking sector
outperformed growth of IHSG. As one of the bodies managing investor’s fund,
many securities exchange treated shares of the banking sector as premium
shares.
Although Net interest Margin [NIM] tend to drop, the volume of credit
extended by banks continued to increase. The national banking industry still
had room to make expansion and diversification of income resource to jack up
growth of net profit. Among the effort to increase operational income was to
promote fee-based income. By 2013 banking business could still be expected to
grow by around 14%. Shares of the banking sector which were notably liquid
could be transacted. (SS)
Business News - April 03,2013
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