During closing session last Thursday (2/8) Rupiah was seen to strengthen considerably against USD by four points thanks to growing optimism triggered by meeting of the Europe Central Bank (ECB) which was expected to stimulate the market positively.
Rupiah exchange rate value in inter-bank transaction inched up to Rp 9,435 against the previous position of Rp 9,439 per USD. Rupiah was still stable although the Fed had not glen any extra stimulus, which economists predicted to be given by next September.
The market’s attention was now focused on the ECB meeting which was being awaited for the market was expecting that the policy would bring positive impact in the market. However the German manufactures in the Euro region who reduced their activities could be one of Rupiah catalyst to retun to the bearish zone. Strengthening of Rupiah was still at limited range because market players were still waiting for outcome of ECB meeting which might lower their interest rate.
Meanwhile the Central Board of Statistics (BPS) announced annual inflation this year was happening through July 2011 – July 2012 at 4.5% with highest inflation happening in the food sector. Price increase in the food sector was noted at 7.02% which was the strongest stimulus to inflation over the period of July 2011 – July 2012.
Significant price increase was also happening in ready food category, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco at 5,88% and garments which increased by 5,06% followed by increased price in education, recreation and sport at 4.2%, housing, water, electricity and fuel at 3.29%, health 2.96% and transportation, communication and financial services at 1.87%.
Compared to national annual inflation rate of the same period two years before, inflation rate this year was relatively lower compared to inflation rate of July 2009 – July 2010 at 6.22% and inflation of July 2009 – July 2011 at 4.61%.
Meanwhile BPS ado released inflation rate of calendar year (January-July 2012 at 2.5% which was relatively higher than inflation in calendar year 2011 at 1.74%. Inflation rate of July itself was posted at 0.7% which was also an increase compared to inflation of July 2011 at 0.67% and inflation of May at 0.65%.
Government Optimistic about Controlling Inflation of 2012.
Meanwhile the Government remained optimistic about maintaining inflation of 2012 at 5.2% which was lower than the target of State Budget (APBN-P) 2012 of 6.8% due to cancelled price increase of subsidized oil. Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance had agreed to set inflation target for 2013, 2014 and 2015 at 4.5%. 4.5% and 4% respectively with deviation of 1%.
The Central Board of Statistics (BPS) announced Indonesia’s accumulated import through first Semester of 2012 (January-June) posted surplus of USD 470.1 million. With accumulated total export of USD 96.69 billion while import was USD 96,41 billion the accumulated trade balance through January-June was posting surplus.
Sector wise, export through First Semester of 2012 was dominated by the industrial sector at the value of USD 57.76 billion or 59.62% of total export. Furthermore export value also supported by the oil-gas sector at the value of USD 20.06 billion supported by export of mining commodity worth USD 16,53 billion (17.07%).
Meanwhile export of commodities of the agricultural sector was considerably low at the value of USD 2,53 billion or 2,53% of total export. By sector, only export of minery products which recorded increase of 4.9%, meanwhile export of industrial products of semester 1, 2012 surprisingly dropped by 4.85% against same period of last year. The same was with export of agricultural products which slumped by 1.35%.
Regretfully import-export balance of July still recorded deficit of USD 1.32 billion. This was because export value of June dropped by 16.44% while import value rose by 10.71% against previous year.
Total export of June 2012 which reached USD 15.36 billion dropped by 8.7% against May which was posted at USD 16.72 billion. Total import was posted at USD 16.72 billion. Total import of June 2012 rose by 10.71% to become USD 165.69 billion against June of last year at Rp 15.07 billion. The deficit of Trade Balance gave negative sentiment to Rupiah this week which was estimated to move in the range of Rp 9,435 – Rp 9,465 perUSD.
Meanwhile Euro’s exchange rate value against USD and Japanese Yen weakened after President of Europe’s Central Bank (ECB) Mario Dragh failed to announce a definite plan to troubleshoot debt crisis in the Euro zone. Euro slumped by 0.6% to the level of 95.30 Yen on Thursday (2/8) after previously strengthening by 1.1%. This common currency of 17 states then inched down by 0.4% against USD to become USD 1,2180 after previously strengthening by 1,5%, i.e. in the position of USD 1.2405 which was the highest level since July 5, 2012. However USD weakened by 0,3% against yen to become 78,24 Yen.
The Capital Market
Index of IHSG during transaction last weekend (3/8) tend to slump in line with weakening of global shares. It seemed that negative sentiment spattered from the statement of ECB leader which disappointed the market.
The global factor again suppressed through disappointment of investors and market players as there was no purchase of Spanish and Italian bonds. Moreover index of Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 92.18 points (0.71%) to the level of 12,878.88 Index of S&P 500 also dropped by 10.14 points (0.74%) to the level of 1,365.00 while index of Nasdaq Composite lost 10.44 points to (0.36%) to the level of 2,909.77.
Meanwhile IHSG last Thursday (2/8) was closed lower by 37 points (0.90%) to the level of 4,093.11 with total transaction amounting to 5.44 million shares worth Rp 3.87 trillion. Index of all sectors of shares dropped. Foreign investors were still recorded as net buyers at the regular market with buys amounting to Rp 63.1 billion. The best selling shares were: ASII, BBRI, BBCA, ADRO, and KLF.
Technically downturn of IHSG had been maximized to the support level of 4,090 which was tested. Chances were IHSG would have ascended during closing session last Friday (3/8) in the range of 4,060 – 4,130 with varied sentiments and tendency to rise.
Beware of Possible IHSG Downturn Toward Weekend
Some stock players still rated IHSG movement last Friday (3/8) would be signified by negative sentiment. Therefore analysts reminded the market to be on the alert of possible downturn of IHSG to ward weekend. There were some global sentiments which would influence index, such as: outcome of the Europe Central Bank (ECB) meeting which was disappointing and release of data of factory orders in June which dropped by 0,5%.
In addition to that, weekly data of unemployment claim in the USA also rose to 365,000 against the previous 357,000. In view of the grim economic data, index of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) slumped by 192 points.
Previously Edwin analysts already predicted index would enter the correction phase this August with potential downturn as much as 100 to 200 points, although over the month surely IHSG might rise or fall in line with completed financial release of Semester 1 financial Report after dividend were distributed toward long Lebaran holiday.
Some stockmarket players predicted that movement of index which was very volatile would continue till next week, to be exact August 2012. The rated that under the circumstances the chances for loss or fail was considerably big.
Weakening of IHSG last Thursday (2/8) was a continued trigger for correction per July 23 last where top form had perfectly shaped up but today again weakening and showing reverse motion. Therefore there were two possibilities: IHSG would crash to the level of 3,800 or this correction was an instrument for catapult that would shoot IHSG up to as high as 4,200.
Spectral shares still had the potential jack up index even higher. It was recorded that the average performance of net profit of emitents of the property sector through Semester 1 (year on year) was predictably highest compared to nine other sectors recorded at the Indonesia Security Exchange (BEI). Significant sales growth served as main propeller of net profit growth of property emitents. The projection emitent’s net profit was higher, possibly around 20% - 15%.
Meanwhile a number of analyst rated that six shares entering the LQ45 list had considerably high liquidity with the potential to be actively marketed at the secondary market. The fundamental performance of the six emitents was also perceived as good so they had the potential for transaction with better liquidity by investors.
Last week PT BEI released six new emitents included in LQ 45 shares. The six shares were: PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) who had market capitalization of Rp 32.78 trillion, PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) Rp 20.47 trillion, PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) Rp 13.73 trillion, PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL) Rp 6.91 trillion, PT BW Plantation Tbk (BWPT) Rp 6.01 trillion and PT Indotraco Penta Tbk (INTA) Rp 2,51 trillion.
A little positive sentiment might be generated from the planned IPO release by some new candidate emitents. All in all IPO in Semester II remained highly prospective and were well responded by investors. There were 12 companies who were ready to release shares in BEI in Semester II. Some of them were predicted to be stormed by investors, like PT Citra Borneo Indah, PT Waskita Karya, PT Semen Baturaja, PT Aero Wisata Catering Services, PT Drilling Service Indonesia, (a Pertamina subsidiary company) and PT PLN Batam.
Prospect of Semester II IPO Remains to Stay Bright
The stockmarket authorities and analyst were certain that IPO of shares in Semester II remained prospective and were well responded by investors. Price of IPO shares at the secondary market was predicted to increase thanks to sound fundamental economy and prospective market condition.
According to analysts, beside IPO value which was considerably high, performance of the six companies were also good. Six other companies who were ready to go public were PT Inti Bangun Sejahtera, which would offer 15% of shares worth Rp 192 billion, PT Provident Argo with 20% of shares worth Rp 500 billion and PT express Trasido Utama who released 20% of shares with targeted fund of Rp 800 – Rp 900 billion. Furthermore PT Pelayaran Nelly Dewi Putri (20% shares), PT Persib Bandung Bermartabat (targeted fund Rp 200 billion) and PT Cipaganti Citra Graha with targeted fund of Rp 750 billion.
Other factiors which might stimulate investors were stock split activities by emutents who were rated as positive phenomenon which would increase shares liquidity of the related emitent. Beside increasing liquidity of shares retail investors could also easily buy shares of bigger value at affordable price.
With emitents doing corporate acts, it was believed that the money market would be made merrier by retail investors. In the few months some emitents had made corporate acts breaking shares value, among other PT Astra International Tbk (ASTII) and PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF).
This corporate act could draw foreign investors to buy corporate shares. Usually after stock split, performance of emitent’s shares became more appealing. On the other hand, corporate acts made shares liquid enough to be traded. So it came as no surprise if there were emitents who were interested in doing this corporate act.
For that matter this week IHSG would be projected to movie in the range of 4,050 – 4,120 with tendency to thinly increase. Second layer and third layer shares, strengthened with IPO outcome were the reasons for IHSG increase.