Monday, 7 January 2013


The Moneymarket

Quantitative Easing of the Third Phase in the USA during last weekend [15/9] had generated new optimism among market players of the world. Rupiah had to be content with thin strengthening which among others was on account of negative sentiment as investors were still worried about the critical condition in Europe.

Previously doubt was creeping in among investors about whether or not Spain was going to get their bail out indeed to cool down their fiscal trouble. The euphoria of stimuli by various banks was over. Now the market’s attention was focused on Europe in line with fluctuation of yields of Spanish bonds reaching the level of 6% for 10 year tenure. Therefore, although Rupiah over the session once reached its highest level of Rp9,533 it also touched its lowest level of Rp9.545,- [20/9].

Hence Rupiah value against USD inched up by 10 points [0/10%] to the position of Rp 9.545 against the previous Rp9.555 per USD [19.09]. At the same time, investors were again on the alert of global economic slowdown. Previously data was released on manufacturing index China which posted the figure of 47.8 against the previous 47.6. The figure seemed good, but it was still below 50 so the sentiment on the market was negative.

As a rule, as long as index was still bellow 50 activities of the manufacturing sector was still contracting. Moreover China’s manufacturing industry was already showing a downturn since July 2012 and had been at the level below 50 in past 10 months.

Meanwhile Japan also contributed to injecting negative sentiment to the market after their year on-year export data fell to the lowest level of -5.8% against the previous -8.1% but was still contracting. This was not to mention sentiment from Japan’s manufacturing which also sank to the level of-5

The accumulation of sentiments built up negative pressures on Asian currencies including Rupiah. Rupiah failed to strengthen to bellow Rp9,500 per USD All in all USD strengthened against majority of leading currencies including Euro. Index of USD strengthens to USD 1.3049 per Euro.

Previously Rupiah exchange rate against USD was predicted to ease down. The release of manufacturing index of China, Europe and USA served as catalysts. So far the figures were predicted as positive. The only thing was, in spite of improvement, the global manufacturing sector would still be contracting with the index below 50.

Global manufacturing data would determine Rupiah movement this week especially PMI Manufacturing Index China against the previous 47.6 for September 2012. Index of Europe manufacturing was predicted to improve in September to 45.5 against the previous 45.1. Meanwhile index of US Manufacturing was predicted to be at -4.0 against the previous -7.1 for September 2012. Generally speaking, US data was varied enough but indicating recovery of US economy. The condition could better performance of USD considering that other part of the world was under threat of recession, building pressures on Rupiah.

Last week America released data of mortgage sales which was predicted to increase by 4.55 million units against the previous 4.47 million units. Data of Housing Start had the number of homes being built were also predicted to increase to 760 thousand units against the previous 746,000 units although the number of Building Permit lessened to become 796,000 units against in August.

At the same instant, Rupiah had the same negative pressures from Japan’s projected bad export data. Although the deficit lessened, it remained to be minus. Japan’ export [year on year] was predicted to contract to -7.3% against the previous -8.1% for August 2012.

For this week Rupiah exchange rate value was predicted to be buoyed by market optimism after Quantitative Easing of the third phase [QE3]. in fact this was started since early last week [17/9] where Rupiah exchange rate value strengthened to Rp9,454 per USD This strengthening of Rupiah was only of short term due to negative sentiment from the deficit in current transaction which also signaled that the for USD was still high. As with Rupiah curve line this week, there were expectations for appreciation to as high as Rp9,480 per USD.

The Capital Market

Index of IHSG once weakened by 27.19 points or 0.64% to become 4, 217, 52 meanwhile index of LQ 45 was closed to slump by 5.604 points [0.77%] to the level of 725.451 nearly all trading sectors weakened on that day [20/9]. The sectors still holding on were basic which strengthened by 0.69%, property strengthened by 0.74% and finance by 0.08%; the total trading volume came to Rp3.98 trillion.

Weakening of IHSG was happening in tandem with sharp correction in the Asian stockmarket. The slowdown in China’s manufacturing triggered worries about Asia’s economy. The selling spree of premium shares happened in consumer goods and minery sectors. Second layer shares were eroded as well, especially in the various sector industry.

In fact rally of IHSG was already seen during opening session of early last week [17/9] when index strengthened by 0.23% to the level of 4,266.77 Eight sectors were in the green territory with the minery  sector taking the lead upfront advancing at 0.94% followed by basic industry which rose by 0.88%.

Good news breezed out from Japan. Positive sentiment came from the Bank of Japan [BoJ] who decided not to increase their benchmark rate and planned to inject additional stimulus which would be the catalysts of index this week. The downturn or global demand caused by crisis in Europe made the of Japan weaken their own ¥en to increase purchasing power of the global society. In addition to monetary fluctuation in the moneymarket, there was also crisis in Japan’s capital market which accounted for slowdown of growth in that country.

Japan’s GDP through quarter II/2012 today was contracting to become 0.30% compared to previous quarter of 1.40% Nevertheless market players were still worried about the condition of Spain when that country refused ECB’s demand and decided to seek for their own out bail out source. In a condition where the yield of bonds kept on increasing, the action was regarded by many parties as disadvantageous to that country.

Meanwhile from the New York Stockmarket some indicators were still showing slowdown in economic growth in America especially as shown by manufacturing data which were weakening in the past three months. The number of job seekers also increased significantly.

During closing session on Thursday [20/9] index of Dow Jones rose by 18.97 points [0.14%] to the level of 13,596.93 Index of Standard & Poor 500 thinned out by 0.79 points to level of 1,460.26 Index of Composite Nasdaq thinned out by 6.66 points [0.21%] to the level of  3,175.96

On the contrary during session on Thursday Europe’s shares were under pressure. Index of Europe 600 dropped by 0.6% to the level of 273.22 driven by weakening of shares of oil and the banking sector.  Index of IBEX Spain dropped by 1.1%, index of DAX shares Germany dropped by 0,9%, index of FISE dropped by 0.8%

This week, beside the external factor – especially from the USA investors must also see the domestic situation. The automotive sector needed keen attention. As known, the so many motorcycle dealers and distributors spreading around sales brochures of motorcycle of various brands indicated that sales of motorcycles were losing energy. The cause was the Government’s Regulation that set minimum limit of down payment for automotive credit at 25% since June last. Consequently, the Association of Indonesian Motorcycle Industry [AISI] revised target of motorcycle sale to become 6.5 million units or down by 13.9% against previous target of 7.25 million units.

Before the regulation was put in effect, sales of motorcycle in May 2012 were posted at 611,251 units, but in June it dropped to become 541,918 units. It once went up in July line with Lebaran festivity to become 579,077 units, motor sales in August again dropped to 433,741 units. It was predicated that motor sales would continue to slump this year.

Motorcycle producers including Astra Honda had to correct their sales target by ewnd of this year. It was only natural if they made corrections, because if total production of motorcycles remained the same it would generate unhealthy price war. What was worse if the Government set minimum DP rules also on Syariah banks, sales of motorcycles could sink even deeper, i.e. it might drop below 6.5 million units or maybe 5 million units.

The impact was that Astra Honda revised sales target of Honda motorcycles in 2012 from 4.5 million units to 3.8 million units. PT Yamaha Motor Kencana Indonesia also lowered their sales target from 3.7 million units to 2.6 million units based on analysis of motorcycle sales trend which kept on de spending.

Generally speaking after the Fed released QF3, investors were predicted to accumulate buying of mining shares cheaply in line with increasing price of world commodity prices. During transaction last week, some mining shares strengthened significantly in response to QF3 announcement.

All in all during transaction over the week index of BEI stood a change continue strengthening in the post quick count announcement of JokowiAhok victory at Jakarta Governor Election last week in the range of 4,220 – 4,270.
BUSINESS NEWS - September 26, 2012

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