The Moneymarket
In post Idul Fitri days, the external (global) factors
was still overshadowing Rupiah curveline and local stockmarket index this week
During early session on Friday last weekend (24/8) Rupiah exchange rate value
was still motionless in the position of Rp 9,485 per USD. Previously Rupiah
value against USD was closed to strengthen to the position of Rp 9,485 per USD
(23/8) against the previous Rp 9,510 per USD.
Index of Bloomberg foreign currency showed that USD
weakened against Asia’s main currencies except New Zealand’s Dollar, Australian
dollar, Indian Rupee and Japanese Yen which were affected by deficit of trade
balance and inched up by 0.03% to the level of 78.56 per USD. Meanwhile Rupiah
was fortunate to have the blissful impact of stimulus regulation exercised by
the Fed and inched up by 0.18% to the level of Rp 9,488 per USD.
Bank Indonesia was spontaneously on the alert in the
market and was seen to make market intervention to maintain Rupiah stability.
Outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) sparked a little
hope for the Fed to launch OE3 which signaled Rupiah exhalation. BI was
predicted to try to calm down Rupiah fluctuation amides readiness to supply USD
in the market to meet the demand of USD by importers each time by end of the
month.
Meanwhile Euro exchange rate value floated at above USD
1.25 on Wednesday (22/8) for the first time since early July. Euro exchange
rate strengthened, driven by outcome of the Fed’s last meeting which signaled
that the Central Bank would inject new stimulus. Euro was in the position of
USD 1.2522, an increase against USD 1.2470.
Somehow Euro once fell against Japanese Yen to the level
of 98.34 yen against the previous 98.84 yen. USD also weakened against ¥
slipping down to ¥ 78.53 against the previous ¥ 97.27. USD also weakened
against Swiss Franc from the previous 0.9628 Franc. Greenback also fell against
British Poundsterling which was traded at USD 1.5878 against the previous USD
1.5786 the day before.
Euro was under pressure when word was out that European
leaders must anticipate the possibility of the Euro zone breaking up. This was
the message of Finland’s Prime Minister Errki Tuomioja as released by the Daily
Telegraph on Friday August 17, 2012. Tuomioja said that the Government of
Finland was ready to face reality in case the Euro currency broke down with “an
operational plan to face any condition” This agenda was not initiated by Finland.
“But we must be ready. The Government of Finland have a set of plan if anything
bad happens; But it seems that there was a consensus that a case like the Euro
zone breaking up would be extremely costly for the short term or medium term,
more costly than the effort to troubleshoot the crisis irself”.
Finland had the right of Veto to reject any agenda that
proposed bail out for any European state. Now Europe had to solve debt crisis
faced by their member countries which eventually leads to budget tightening.
However this budget tightening was criticized by many circles including George
Soros who said that any austerity plan would slow down economic growth and
eventually make crisis even worse.
From the above picture it was clear that the future faith
of Rupiah would still be under external pressure in the range of Rp 9,475 to Rp
9,525 per USD. External factors were still more prevalent compared to internal
factors as clearly visible in the nation’s fundamental economy.
The Capital Market
Meanwhile index of IHSG inched down by 11.341 point or
0.27% to the level of 4,251.318. Index of LQ45 also inched flown by 2.340
points (0.33%) to the level of 715.778. The cause was negative sentiment from
the Asian market on account of global sentiment. This was downpressed by
selling spree of premium shares.
And yet during opening session last weekend (24/8) IHSG
had lessened by 21.137 points (0.51%) to the level of 4,141.522 being affected
by negative sentiment from the global market. Fading hope for stimulus coming
from Federal Reserve was overshadowing market pulsation.
Players of the regional market were getting more cautious
about declining world’s economy. The point was that China’s economy was losing
steam and so was that of Uni Europe. Apparently indices never touched the
positive territory at all. Selling spree that never ceased drove index to
plunge to the lowest level at 4,125,260.
Commodity-based premium shares which once soared up being
uplifted by increased commodity prices were now starting to become subject to
selling spree. Selective buying crept over second layer shares. Regional
stockmarkets were still weakening due to negative sentiment of the global
market. The stockmarket of Hong Kong and China fell by more than one percent.
The Situation at Asian
Stockmarkets by noon Last Week (14/8).
Index of Composite Shanghai weakened by 15.26 points
(0.72%) to the level of 2,097.81. Index of Hang Seng dropped by 228.16 points
to the level of 19,904.08 Index of Nikkei sank by 106.46 points (1.16%) to the
level of 9,071.66 Index of Straits Times fell by 6.32 points (0.21%) to the
level of 3,050.05.
At the New York stockmarket, wall street was corrected
due to fading hope that the Federal Reserve would move fast to inject
additional stimulus to market. In addition to that, economic data of China and
Uni Europe showed how stagnant global economy was. Ten leading industrial
sectors in S&P index were closed at negative territory, led by the material
sector which fell by more than 1.7% The falling shares of Hewlett & Packard
also posed as burden, but index of S&P 500 still managed to hold on at the
psychological level of 1,400.
Investors still predicted additional stimulus from The
Fed, especially with the slowing down of America’s economy as seen from the reported
data of the local Government. But President of the Fed of St Louis branch,
James Bullard said that the latest economic cata being dissected by the Central
Bank was blinking signals of economic recovery.
During closing session on Thursday (23/8) index of Dow
Jones dropped by 115.30 point (0.88%) to the level of 13,057.46 Index of
Standard & Poor 500 weakened by 11.41 points (0.81%) to the level of
1,402.08 Index of Composite Nasdaq dropped by 20.27 points (0.66%) to the level
of 3,053.40.
Although certainty of Quantitative Easing (QE)
realization was still miles away, investors were over expectant and optimistic
and such had jacked up index. The Europe stockmarket which were vigorous during
opening session on Thursday (23/8) was the proof of iit. Asian stockmarket was
even bolstered up in the past two weeks. The trigger was hope for liquidity
injection of the third phase. Although Quantitative easing was part of the
speech of The Fed’s Governor Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole, no one could really
be sure what was going to happen next.
Back to the local BEI Indonesia Security Exchange Market;
index was fluctuative, hopping thinly between red and green zone. Buying spree
was not too overwhelming, some investors were still on vacation so the
marketplace was not too merry today. Index moved back and forth between green
and red, somehow gradually index managed to drift back to the green zone thanks
to act of selective buying.
Still in the mood of long Lebaran holiday, foreign
investors were making the best of the moment by buying shares. Meanwhile local
investors were still on holiday. The high price of commodities had uplifted
commodity based shares high enough; meanwhile selling spree was still happening
in industry-based shares.
Shares of the banking sector was projected to be
convincing in Semester II this year. This was thanks to performance of the
banking industry which grew quite satisfactorily in Semester I-2012. Apparently
profit of the banking sector was notably growing thanks to progress in credit
pipelining.
The condition indicated that Bank Indonesia’s regulation
which increased minimum amount of Down Payment for Credit of Automotive and
Mortgage (KPR) was rated as having no significant impact on the performance of
industry. It was believed that the condition would make investor’s trust in the
banking sector remain high in the future, especially in case of first layer
shares or premium shares.
Besides, economic data was also rated as satisfactory in
Semester II this year as one of the propelling factors of industry performance.
Particularly in terms of first strata shares, and shares of the banking sector
were dependent on foreign fund that entered the capital market. Besides shares
of the banking sector, shares of the commodity sector were also noteworthy. The
high price of commodity succeeded in uplifting commode based shares to
considerable high level. Meanwhile shares based on various industry tend to be
avoided.
All in all this week index of BEI was projected to move
in the range of 4,145 – 4,175 with the tendency to strengthen at limited pace.
Business News - August 29, 2012
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