Monday, 18 January 2016


Economic Policy Package 1 of September (Chapter One) run by the Government was no guarantee that the market would be revitalized.  IGSG was still in low mood last Friday (10/9) closed to drop by 10.74 or 0.2%.

Beside Rupiah was also struck at around Rp. 12 thousand per USD. The Coordinating Minister of Economy Darmin Nasution admitted that the Policy Package was no Magic Wand that would bring instant change besides global sentiment was will strong.

Proper implementation was all that counts. Darmin Nasution said that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would elaborate on the Technical side of the Policy before he visited the Middle East.

Today the Government was proceeding to prepare Phase Two of the Economic Policy. Previously the Coordinating Minister of Economy summoned a number of Ministries to discuss the Presidential Regulation for acceleration of strategic project.

Today the Phase Two Economic Stimulus Chapter 1 announced by President Jokowi on September 9 last was expected to serve as remedy to economic slowdown. In this Policy Package President Jokowi focused attention on the real sector which was to be the foundation for further development.

The President believed that the Economy Policy Package would strengthen national industry, develop Small Business, enhance inter-regional trading, and revitalized tourism. Spontaneously the stimulus Package of Phase 1 was responded positively by Businesspeople, analysts, and bankers. President Jokowi admitted that this Policy would not procedure instant result without support of many circles.

On the monetary side, in live with Economy Policy Package announced by the Government and to stabilize economy including stabilization of USD. BI had also issued Policy Package consisting of 5 policies.

Meanwhile the position of Indonesia’s Forex Reserves by August 2015 last was posted at USD 105.3 billion, lower that the position by end of July 2015 amounting to USD 107.6 billion. The contraction was on account of expenditures for paying Government’s overseas for market intervention.

Reduced forex reserve was in line with BI’s commitment to stay in the money market to protect Rupiah. Fortunately   there was extra support to forex reserves from the issuance of the Government’s Samurai Bonds to stop deeper slump of Rupiah.

Under the Circumstance the position of forex reserves by end of August was still enough for financing 7.1 months of import and paying Government’s overseas debt, and above international standard of equity of around 3 month of import.

The Government and BI must observe Standard & Poor’s warning they believed that Indonesia was sensitive to capital flight trend even more vulnerable than Malaysia who was troubled by political scandal, lowered oil price and currency devaluation. Indonesia’s position was the gravest in ASEAN.

According to S&P. Malaysia was advantaged because their capital base was more solid, so companies and banks needed not to depend on foreign capital to finance their growth. Such was the opinion of Kyran Curry, Director of Debt Rating Agency Singapore. They said that Indonesia was by far more vulnerable to capital traffic and they were worried of Indonesia’s forex reserves.

Indonesia’s forex reserve shrinking was close to 7% in the past 5 months by end of July. Although the shirking was less than Malaysia, but S&P feared the step of monetary authority who “spent a lot of forex for stabilizing currency.”

Rupiah weakened by 4.9% since July last, less than half of Ringgit percentage of 11%, after China devaluated their Yuan. Price of Indonesia’s Promissory Notes sank deeper that than of Malaysia was in the past 3 months although Malaysia was trouble by the case of failing oil price and corruptions scandal by Prime Minister Najib Razaq.

The Government of RI and BI were striving hard to strengthen the domestic capital market, but it might take time before any result might be seen. The Malaysia’s stock market was basically stronger. Over the past 2 months index of IHSG had slumped by 15% while index of Malaysia’s stock market dropped by 10%. Price of bonds in local currency according to Bloomberg had inched down by 0.7% for Malaysia and 1% for Indonesia.

Foreign capital amounting to USD 468 million had been drawn of Indonesia’s shares this year, after pumping net fund of USD 3.8 billion to the capital market since 2014 last, while foreign capital drawn out of Malaysia’s shares came to USD 3.8 billion or Ringgit 6.9 billion 2014.

Malaysia never had any massive inflow of foreign capital the way it happened in Indonesia in the past few years; such was more or less seen in ownership of state’s bonds by foreign which came to 38% in Indonesia and 32% in Malaysia.

However S&P assured that either Malaysia or Indonesia where not different in tern of probability of having their rating demoted. However, Indonesia’s rating might be lowered from positive to stable in case of macro instability or if the Government failed to enhance reformation.

According to start allopsoop Head of Asia Risk and Marketing Strategy at BMI Research Singapore, Malaysia’s economy posted solid ground compared to Indonesia. Malaysia posted surplus of current transaction amounting to USD 1.8 billion in Q-2 last while Indonesia posted deficit of USD 4.48 billion.

Malaysia was also in positive international intervention position, unlike Indonesia. This means that if USD strengthened due to increase of FFR, Indonesia would bear increased debt if calculated in Rupiah which means debt payment would be slower. In case of Malaysia, their external asset value would increase so the negative effect of the Fed increasing FFR would be ignorable.

However Rohit Arora, a strategy expert for the emerging market of Asia Barclay Plc recommended their client to reduce Malaysia’s bonds and be neutral to Indonesia’s bonds. This investment institution were worried about the two countries but by seeing the condition of trading and weakening cycle of commodity price, Ringgit was more vulnerable than Rupiah.

Indonesia’s domestic capital resources was not too deep which means that Indonesia was still reliant on overseas financing Compared to other countries in Asia. This dependency caused Indonesia to sensitive to external sentiments such as the Fed’s action or currency devaluation in China.
The Money market.

Many factors could strengthen USD among them was the Fed’s plan to increase FFR, or devaluation of Yuan in China. Through 2015 Rupiah would drop by more than 13%.

Last week end (11/9) Rupiah strengthened moderately in the range of Rp.14.000 – Rp.14.200 per USD as market players were not entire responding well to Government and BI policy. This week, Rupiah might ascend to around Rp.14.000 – Rp.14.200 per USD.

Probably market players were waiting for the realization and outcome of the new Government’s Integrated and outcome of the new Government’s Integrated Economy Policy package.

Meanwhile during transaction in New York last Thursday (10/9) USD slightly descended against most of the leading currencies due to negative US inflation data.

US total import was down by 1.8% in August, the deepest slump since January which less 18 September next. But against Yen USD prolonged its strengthening to Ұ 120.63 against the previous Y 120.54.

British Pound sterling strengthened against USD and Euro as BoE maintained their monetary policy to keep interest at 0.5%.

It was those external sentiments which pressed Rupiah down, although speculation was undoable. The Minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that lately nearly all people were being speculative about US economic condition, especially when unemployment in the USA lessened.

The Government of Chins was ambitious about comforting IMF by proposing Yuan to be included in the International Reserve Current Basket. China would open doors to foreign central banks to trade foreign currency in China’s domestic market which means foreign currency authorities could have forex reserves in Yuan.

The Government of China had permitted foreign banks to participate in inter-bank bond market. Participation of foreign central bank would make Yuan onsh0re exchange to be acceptable globally.

According to the report of Standard Charter Plc released in May 2015, more than 60 central banks of the world had invested sovereign wealth fund in Yuan denomination. The total combined ownership was between USD 70 billion – USD 120 billion. Still three were those who did believe that the Government of China would drum foreign capital to come to their domestic market significantly in a short time.

Time reason was that foreign central banks were not interested in investing in Indonesia under the threat of currency depreciation when China’s fundamental economy turned better, Upon presenting at the World’s economic Forum, China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang said he would not wage a currency war and promised to maintain Yuan stability at reasonable level.

Now toward FOMC meeting on September 16 - 17 next, top executives of the Fed were far from agreeing to increase FFR, such was reflected in the opinion which they expressed.

Although officially the fed was still inclined to increase inters after September, there would still be another meeting in October and December, statement of the Fed’s executive reflected conflict of opinion and uncertainly.

A number of the Fed officials wished bank inters to be increased because the labor market was recovering fast to heal economy. The sign of increasing demand for labor was seen in the report of the US Labor Dept. which posted opening of new job opportunities numbering 5.8 million.

The report confirmed the previous reports that unemployment figure dropped to 5.1% from 5.3% last July and was even approaching zero percent. Some officials feared that if Fed kept inters low for too long it might generate excess like asset bubble due to increased credit which burdened further economic process.

Some executives feared continued low inflation, increase of USD rate, China’s economic slowdown and turbulence in the money market. The Fed, they said, could maintain the present interest level sp they would be assured that global economy would not lead to further chaos. Those were the factors to be taken into consideration by the Fed.

All of America’s economic data were today showing signs of progress, but there was a notable obstacle. Internal development might govern the fed’s decision this weeks, while the real development in economic data would also be the governing factors.

At the meeting of central banks of the American states in Jackson Hole last month. Vice Chairman of the Fed Stanley Fisher was urgent to oppose the market opinion that most likely increase of inters this September would be much less. Fischer and a number of the fed’s officials were asked to open option and recommend new measures.

Chairperson of the Fed Janed Yallen would be in difficult position at that meeting. Since her speech at the Congress last July, Yallen never spoke a world to the public. Her silence obscured the Fed’s hesitation even worse.

Before every meeting of the Fed, the economic advisor staff would recommend alternative steps, including usually the “middle” option between setting low inters and maintaining eased monetary option.

The “middle option” could be to signal that the Fed would increase FFR this year as soon as they could feel safe about the market trend.

As part of the massage, the Fed’s top executive would find a way to support their opinion – in the fed’s statement after the meeting that they would follow up the decision carefully and gradually.

The situation reminded us of the occurrence in September 2013 when the fed officially signaled to stop buying Government bonds, but was hesitant when there was sudden market confusion and decide to reduce buying of bonds in December. At that time Government of the Fed Ben Bernande decided to wait for supporting evident sustainable betterment in the labor market.

Although the decision triggered market uncertainly, it helped to convince the public that the Fed had their commitment to attain Lowered unemployment target and inflation of 0%, which the fed never attained so far.

The president of the Fed Minneapolis Nayarana Kocherlakota was against increase of interest. Narayana stated that the fed must maintain interest until inflation reached 2% target. Today, real inflation was way above target.

Head of the World Bank Kaushik Basu also reminded the Fed not be in a hurry to increase bank interest because it might rock the boat. Developing countries would be most affected if FFR were increased. In the short run, escalation of US benchmark rate would threaten market of developing nations having sizable debt in USD. INF also asked the Fed to postpone increase of FFR still next year.

It was at this point that increase a macro economy condusive to progress, the government of Indonesia together whit related institutions including BI and OJK was constantly stabilizing economy on both fiscal and monetary side.

In order to constantly boost Indonesia’s economy, the Government last Wednesday (9/9) announced launching of three economy policy package called September 1. On the monetary side, in line with the policy adopted stability including stability of exchange rate; BI also set up integrated Macro Policy which consisted of 5 policies.

Firstly, to enhance inflation control and promote the real sector from the supply side secondly, to maintain Rupiah stability. Thirdly, so strengthen Rupiah liquidity. Fourthly, to manage supply and demand of foreign currency, fifthly further steps to control the money market. Presumably this Chapter One Economy package might not show result as less still year end but probably middle-long term since 2016.
The capital Market

Index of IHSG at BEI last week (11/9) started with increase of 20 points driven by position sentiment, while act of foreign sell was still going on.

During pre-opening session IHSG rose by 20.188 points (0.46%) while index of LQ45 soared up by 5.162 points (0.71%) to 7.366.655. Sector wise, not a single sector was down. Three sectors with biggest increase were: agriculture 1.71%, infra structure 0.63% and another industrial sectors 0.6%.

Previously during transaction last Thursday (10/9) IHSG fell into the red zone. The correction could be less after buying rush toward closing session. Other Asian stock markets were compact to strengthen in the green zone. Index of Nikkei 225 dropped by 31.54 points (0.17%) to the level of 18.368.08. Index of Hang Seng strengthened by 130.95 points (0.61%). Index of Composite Shanghai rose by 15.32 points (0.48%) to the level of 3.231.21.

Hence curve line of indices at BEI was in reverse direction of Asian stock market. Toward FOMC meeting to be held this week, most of indices at the region weakened. Today volatility level at Asia’s stock market was approaching the highest level since 2011 last.

Stakeholders said that such was because market players tend to wait-and-see for the Fed’s actions whether or not to increase FFR. Meanwhile anxiety over the economic addition in China was cooling off. Moreover the Government of China was striving had to prevent foreign capital from flowing out of the country. The financial authority of China was also making market intervention at the currency market to relax the turbulence in their financial market.

Last Thursday (10/9) Wall street was closed positive, Index of Standard & Poor’s 500 was also closed to inch up by 0.5% to become 1.952.29. In the previous transaction US stock market index rose by 1.2% while of Dow Janes Industrial Average was closed to inch up by 0.5% to become 16.330.40 while index of Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.8%.

Increase of index at Wall street was elevated by recovery of Apple shares which was closed with increase of 2.2% as Apple introduced a new product. Movement of a number of other shares which influenced US stock market were among others Biogen Inc. increasing by 3.2%, Giled Scineces Inc 3.5%, Pfizer Inc 2..1%, Wynn Resort Ltd down by 4.67% and Krispy Kreme Doughtnuts down by 12%.

US economy was struggling to recover from adversity. Recovery of wages level trigged house hold consumption, resulting in demand for credit among America citizens.

The Fed noted that consumer’s credit rose higher than projected. The growth was buoyed up by credit card and automotive credit. Per July 2015, consumer’s credit rose 7.7% (y o y) to become USD 19.1 billion, Mean while the estimated median in survey run by Bloomberg only predicted consumer’s credit worth USD 18.8 billion.

Non revolving credit which were for automotives and education soared up by 7% annually in July but the increase was lower than growth in June 2015 which was 9.4%. Mean while revolving credit which were mostly credit card increased by 5.7% in the first 7 months against same period last year. In the previous month revolving credit soared up by 10%.

As a whole, consumer’s credit showed increasing trend which was an indicators of household spending level. As footnote, household expenditure contributed 70% to US economy. Improved US economic data would generate positive sentiment to increase of FFR. Somehow the Fed also considered US unemployment level which, inspite of being down by 5.2% was not enough to justify of FFR increase.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc estimated the Government of China had spent USD 1.5% trillion Yuan or USD 236 billion to support their Stock market since correction 3 months ago. A special team had spent around Yuan 600 billion in August alone.

Investors feared that China might stop interventions the way it happened in Hong kong and the USA. Index of Shanghai had dropped by 41% since June erasing market value at USD 5 trillion as investors released their shares amidst worsening economic slowdown.

To keep the stock market from sinking any deeper, the Government threw USD 400 billion of fund to buy back shares, prohibit sales of shares by shareholders while Government companies were obliged to buy shares. Downfall of the stock market in addition to sudden devaluation of Yuan had rocked the boat Index of Shanghai sanjk deepest in the past 2 weeks. China Securities Finance Corp, the body in charge of supporting price of shares no longer bought shares unless there was volatility which was unusual or systemic risk.

From the above picture it was apparent that chances for IHSG to strengthen during closing session (11/9) was quite good and might be closed at around 4.375 – 4.415 while this week IHSG had the chance to strengthen to around 4.450 – 4.500 in line with public positive response to Government ‘s Economy Policy Package Chapter I.

The Economic policy Package would uplift consumer’s purchasing power which happened to drop in the previous months. This was visible in BI’s record reckoned purchasing power Indonesian middle class which had been dramatically reduced. This was seen in survey of retail sales by BI in July and August 2015. The latest release of Indonesia’s monetary authority showed that monthly Real Sales Index in August 2015 was predicted to be minus 6.1% (m t m) against July 2015 which grew thinly at 4.9 % to become 197.4.

IPR reflected development of retail sales in Indonesia. If the IPR outcome showed slow growth or even minus, it is reflected down turning people’s consumption. Slowdown of retail sales in August 2015 was expected to happen to certain categories, food or non food. Compared to July 2015, sales of spare parts and accessories would be minus 0.4%. Besides minus sales growth would also be posted in Food & Beverages and Tobacco 7% as well as IT equipment minus 1.4%.

Downturn was posted at household utensils 3.3% and clothing with minus growth 16.3% against 6 months of July 2005. However  to compare against same period the previous  year, real sales in July 2015 and August 2015 was predicted to grow by 4.8% and 10.6% respectively.

The products showing sizable growth in July 2015 (y o y0 were F & B, tobacco, also IT equipment. High demand during Idul Fitri was the propeller factors. As a result of less sales growth in August 2015 retailer optimism was low, which was visible in Index of Sales Expectation in the next 3 months which dropped from 125.3 to 121.5.

In the next 6 months, Index of Sales Expectation only inched up from 132.7 to 132.9. Global economic slowdown and Rupiah deprectaition coused public demand to drop. The condition was clearly seen in core inflation data in August 2015 which was at the level of 4.92% or below 5%. Household consumption in Q II dropped to 4.49% against previous quarter at 5.01%. After Idul Fitri, household consumption was still notably low.

In the following month, predictably the El Nino phenomena would inflation level which would been burden retail sales. Only by year end there would be new power to increase sales. After November inflation was again normal to below 5% so people’s purchasing would be uplifted. 
Economic growth in Q III was projected to move toward 5% although people’s purchasing power was pressure. Growth could be attained provided Government’s expenditure was maximized. Hope full Economic Policy Package Chapter I could elevate people’s purchasing power because consumption constituted 56% - 57% to growth. One of to propel industry, this was to keep labor-intensive industry running and to prevent dismissals.

Meanwhile the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resource would revise Regulations on Permit extention for mineral and coal mines. The Regulations to be revised was PP No, 77/2014 on Minerba business. This Agenda was part the chapter I Economic Policy.

According to the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Sudirman Said, one of the points of revision was application for permit extention of mining permit at least 10 year and 2 years before the contract expired. Among the mining companies to be advantaged by this Regulation revision was giant miner companies like PT Freeport Indonesia. Their mining, like PT Vale Indonesia and PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara had high degree of risk.

Beside Vale, Newmont and Freeport, there were three or four other mining companies who could benefit from the revised policy. The Government planned to accomplish the revision this very year.  The Government would have the authority to extend permit although the contract had not expired.

Before extending permit, the Government would evaluate wise extention of the permit to keep it within the corridor of Low No.4/2009 on Mineral and Coal. The technical specification would be responded positively because it means assurance for a long term business.

The Government had just announced extention of mining permit with assurance of abundant raw mineral reserves, for example 30 years.

The first Policy was PP/2013 on the management of Social Insurance Asset whereby to increase investment in the form of land, building or land + building from 5 percent to 30 percent.

Secondly, OJK Regulation which changed SE BI No 13/6/DNP dated February 2011 on the Guild line of Asset Calculation (ATMR) for subsidized mortgage with BBTN as under taker.

Thirdly was Government Regulation on Direct Lending for BUMN who was assigned by the Government. The Housing sector was related 170 other industries and the Housing sector had higher potentials to create jobs. If those sectors were promoted, it would mitigate economic slowdown now happening.

PP No. 15/2004 on Perumnas Mortgage to enhance their role in developing cheap housing for people was accomplished and was now waiting to be signed by the President. The Government planned to revitalize the role of Perumnas and to regain their mission to procure houses for the low income people. (SS)

Business New - September 16, 2015

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