Thursday, 12 March 2015


Today anomaly was apparent in Indonesia’s moneymarket. While IHSG strengthened Rupiah value against USD slumped.

By common sense if any local stockmarket strengthened the national currency strengthened accordingly, but that was not the way it happened with Rupiah.

On the domestic side, low growth performance of measly 5.02% had disappointed investors, moreover inflation was notably high, i.e. 8.3%.

On the global side, the polemics over the Fed planning to increase Fed Fund Rate disturbed investor’s peace of mind so they tend to seek fore USD as safe haven.

So as long as economic recovery was not visible and the rumors over increase of FFR kept spreading, it would be hard for Rupiah to bounch back on its feet again. So Government’s effort to improve national fundamental economy would be the making interventions.

Marketplayers were highly expectant of Government’s effort to restore fundamental economy, so far so called Nawa Cita program had been nothing but discourse without action.

The Moneymarket

On Thursday 12/2 USD value against Rupiah again strengthened to USD 12,800 per USD and kept bolstering up. In response to this President Jokowi said would take time to strengthen Rupiah value. He felt it was to soon to evaluate his performance who had been in office for mere 3 months.

President Jokowi said that Rupiah weakening today was more caused by external factor. Lowered world’s oil price strengthened USD value. Although Rupiah weakened, Jokowi said that Indonesia’s economy today was still tolerable and within reason. The Government was still able to control inflation and trade balance. One thing was sure that fiscal was healthy and inflation was under control.

Just like President Jokowi, Vice President Jusuf Kalla believed that Rupiah value was still within reason and there was nothing to worry about.

JK admitted that he was not aware what made Rupiah nose down so deeply all were due to domestic economic factor but the external factor was also prevalent. JK Believed that Rupiah at RP12,800 per USD was not too adverse.

During opening session Rupiah settled at Rp12.835. The lowest position of Rupiah was Rp.12,851 while the highest position was Rp.12,7821. During previous session (Wednesday 11/12) Rupiah was at Rp.12,717 per USD and by Thursday (12/12) morning it was opened at Rp.12,780 the conflict in Europe generated negative sentiment to the market.

USD index was continuing to strengthen. On the other hand Euro was still weakening due to unsettled negotiation between Greece and Troika. Price of Brent oil wasd own by 2.62% as America announced increase of oil reserves. While US jobless claims was predicted to inch up.

Previously Rupiah, being suppressed by USD index weakened together with some Asian currencies. Rupiah weakening was in line with increased yield of SUN bond where tenure of 10 years increased by up to 7.41% of 7.19%. beside global issue, investors was still waiting for finalization of APBN 2015 announced last week. Besides, deficit of current account to be announced was long awaited for and was predicted to improve. Unfortunately Rupiah tend to continue weakening (13/2) at around Rp.12.700 – Rp.2.800 per USD. Rupiah stood a chance to strengthen provided BI make intervention the measurable and timely way to uplift Rupiah to Rp.12,500 – Rp.12,600 per USD.

The Capital Market

IHSG index at BEI moved up from the red zone during the last minutes of closing session and posted 6 point increase on Thursday (12/12). Foreign investors placed capital of more than Rp.900 billion.

To open transactions on Thursday morning, IHSG inched up by 5.538 points (0.10%) to the level of 5,342.057 amidst correction on Asian stockmarkets. Not-so-hectic buying spree elevate IHSG slightly to its highest point at 5,346.40. Acts of profit taking forced IHSG to fall again into the red zone.

During closing session in Session I (12/2) IHSG inched down by 9.436 points (0.18%) to the level of 5,327.083 after act of profit taking which in the day before had become target of target of profit taking. Foreign investors were busy hunting shares toward end of session. Index being trapped in negative territiory managed to rebound again. IHSG closed transaction to inch up by 6.862 points (0.13%) to the level of 5.343.411. index of LQ 45 also inched up by 2.761 points (0.30%) to the level of 928.927.

Shares of the agriculture and infra-structure sector were investor’s target. Foreign capital re entered BEI. Foreign investors were seen to make foreign net buy worth Rp.942.25 billion in all of the market. Transactions were running moderately with transaction frequency of 238,607 times with volume of 5.243 billion lots worth Rp.5.748 trillion. 123 rose. 152 shares went down and 96 shares stagnated.

Most of Asian stockmarkets strengthened in the red zone except Singaporean stockmarket. Index of 225 jumped by 317.04 points (1.85%) to the level of 7,979.72. index of Hang Seng rose by 107.13 points (0.44%) to the level of 24.442.15. index of Composite Shanghai increased by 15.71 points. Index of Straits Times weakened by 32.51 points (0.94%) to the level of 3.412.06 points.

Meanwhile shares of the US stockmarket on Wednesday (11/2) were closed to weaken, Index of Dow Jones Industrial Average inched down by 0.04% while index of S&P 500 was corrected by 0,01 points. At Asia’s stockmarket, movement of the regional industry moved the varied way, index of Nikkei 225 Japan strengthened by 1.64% while index of KOSPI Composite South Korea inched down by 0.53%.

At BEI shares of the banking sector were investor’s target; this was because NIM of Indonesian bankis were wide. BBRI had NIM of 8% and BMRI 6%.

Shares of the banking sector would predictably grow by 18% this year. By year end, shares of BMRI might come to Rp.13.600 and BBRI Rp.13,500 per unit. Beside the banking sector, shares of the property such as LPKR sector were stormed by foreign investors.

Predictably LKPR shares might come to Rp.1,900 by year end; analysts saw recurring income of Lippo Karawaci was quite promising since the system was obn rental basis. Such was the ground for optimism to reach 5,345 – 5.365.

This week investor were observing corporate acts of some emitents: PT ABMM through its subsidiary company PT Cipta Kridatama planned to diversify business to the nickel mining sector and cement raw materials sector which was designed to jack up income from non-coal mining business.

The Director on ABM Investama Yovie Pribadi disclosed that the biggest company’s income was from coal mining business. In the next 5 years the company sets target of income from non-mining sector at 40%.

The business diversification was designed the company not to be dependent on coal contracting business. It was follow up of diversification of last year, i.e. infra-structure development.

While diversifying CK business, the Company also planned to diversify business of the subsidiary company at the logistics sector. As planned, the company planned to embark on retail logistics. On of the business lines to enter was logistics transportation for oil the oil and gas sector.

This year ABM investama would seek for external fund of USD 105 or around Rp1.2 trillion for Capital Expenditure worth USD 150 million or Rp.1.8 trillion. The company had to choose option from bank credit or bond. External financing would finance 70% of capital expenditure while the remaining 30% was from internal cash.

Today the company still had loan facility which could be used for capex; it was owned by ABM and their subsidiary companies. As planned, ABM would see use most of the capex this year for jacking up business performance in the electricity sector.

ABM started construction of independent Power Producer (IPP) of 2 X 20 megawat capacity in Karimun Island, Central Java. The development of IPP would predictably need fund of USD 80 million or Rp960 billion. Building of coal-fuelled powerhouse was the company’s strategy to diversify business. Previously the company through their subsidiary company PT Samudradaya Sewatama focused effort on electricity procurement from diesel generators.

Through business diversification, the company planned to synergize business of their subsidiary companies. With need for coal fuel, the energy source of IPP was expected to be obtained from the coal –producing subsidiary company, PT Reswara Minergy Hartama. Soon Coal supply might originate from Aseh or South Kalimantan.

Previously ABM, through its subsidiary company PT Cipta Kridatama signed a new contract worth USD 63 million or Rp.724 billion from PT BOSS which was signed this year. By that contract, the company would render mining services like peeling of earth surface, uplifting of coal, rental of heavy equipments and road maintenance. The infra structure was in the Regency of Kutai, East Kalimantan. The contract, the company set the target to do land peeling of 23 million bcm and coal production of 1.5 million tons per year.

Other good news came from PT Link Net Tbk (LINK) which allocated capex this year worth than Rp.1.5 trillion. CEO Link Net Richard Kartawijaya stated that the capex would be used for product innovation and development, maintenance, content expenditure and building of high speed hoapass internet cable.

This year the company set target to net 1 million subscribers for pre-paid TV through First Media products which means additional 300 thousand subscribers till end of 2014. Generally speaking, penetration of pre-paid TV, cable or satellite in Indonesia was posted at 16.5 million subscribers in 2014.

However, to be specific, to segmentate into cable TV type, First media, which was holding company of net Link, commanded over 80% of cable TV in Indonesia. the company’s success to command over the cable TV market was thanks to company’s strategy in making innovation technology in creating set to box which was smarter, with additional broadcast content and selection of the right location in offering cable TV to the public.

Some locations which were the company’s customer bases, among others Jakarta, including some suburbs around it like Tnagerang, Depok, Bogor, and Bekasi. Also Bandung, and some other place like Surabaya and Bali.

Beside development of technology and innovation, the company also adopted the right way to market Cable TV. In Bali, the main target area was hotel zones. It was this factor that made subscribers list keep growing. The company set target to make income of above Rp.2 trillion this year. The total development per September 2014 was Rp.1.8 trillion.

Other info noteworthy to investor was fluctuation of world’s oil price because of its impact on emitents of the oil industry. Citigroup lowered their projection for world’s oil price by saying that the price increase was only momentary. In their research, Citigroup predicted crude oil price might break through USD 20 per barrel within a short time. According to Edward Morse, had of the Global Citigroup Commodity Research, as released by Bloomberg on Tuesday (10/2) last although oil production in the USA kept increasing.
On the other hand, Brazil and Russia kept pumping out oil, while Saudi Arabia, Irak and Iran kept trying to dominate their market share by axing their prices for Asia. So the market was beginning to be over supplied while reserve oil tanks were over supplied.

Reduced production output of oil might not continue till Q 3 while might drop to USD 52 per barrel might drop to USD 20 per barrel might drop to USD 20 per barrel. The shale oil revolution run by the USA had disable OPEC to play the pricing game and reap profit.

It seemed unlikely for OPEC to return to the old platform in doing business. Meanwhile many analysts looked back at OPEC era in the past to be on the verge of collapse but this time it might be different.

Citi axed annual projection of Brent crude oil for the second time through 2015. The price around USD 45 – 55 per barrel was rated as unsustainable and might trigger “investment outflow from the oil sector” and in Q this year might rebound to become USD 75 per barrel. This year price of oil might reach USD 54 per barrel on the average.

Other noteworthy subject was the banking sector. As known the national banking sector was having slowdown. Growth of third party fund (DPK) was down from 13.79% in November 2014 to 12.29% in December 2014 last. Credit also posted slowdown from 11.9% in November 2014 to 11.58% in December 2014.

Although credit growth was slowing down, there were 2 sectors showing upturn, i.e. the construction sector and household. Upturn in the construction sector was in line Government’s plan to develop infra structure. Credit risk was low as indicated by low NPL.

Meanwhile CAR of banks in December 2014 last was posted at 19.57%, posting downturn form 19.67% in November 2014 last. Rentability of NIM of 2.24% and ROA was 2.85%. Efficiency was posted as stable where ratio of BOPO was 76.29%. The banking sector needed to watch on development of LDR since the position of December 2014 increased from 88.65% to 89.42%.

The condition of bank’s liquidity was well guarded in spite of increasing liquidity risk, so dependency on non-core financing and core depositors could be minimized. Mean while risk bank marketing was categorized as low with net forex position below 3% over the past year, way below the 20% limit.

From the above picture, presumably this week IHSG still had the chance to strengthen again to around 5,75 – 5,415. (SS) 

Business News - February 18, 2015

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