Marketplayers’ focus of attention was on continuity of the US administration after being interrupted last week as there was no operational budget in store to support it.
If the US Government stopped operations there would be opportunity for Rupiah and IHSG to strengthen this week, which was a great opportunity hard to obtain as national economy was in adverse condition.
After shutdown of activities in some Government institution, Rupiah exchange rate in interbank transaction in Jakarta on Thursday afternoon last week [2/10] strengthened by 42 points to become 42 points to become Rp11,315 per USD against the previous position of Rp11,357 per USD.
The USD value was again depreciated against most of the world’s currencies including Rupiah after partial shutdown was happening in America without any signal when it would end. It had to happen because there was no agreement about America’s debt ceiling. Meeting between the US President and Congress had not arrived at any point of agreement which diminished good expectations.
So far investors were still optimistic that agreement would be arrived at to avoid long term effect on economy. Meanwhile Rupiah was in better shape as marketplayers were still appreciating Indonesia’s economic data being published. Domestic sentiment at the moneymarket today was notably strong so Rupiah was back in the positive zone.
Still external sentiment must be watched on. If economic shutdown in America turned lengthy, the effect would be just as bad for global economy. In line with heightening inter-bank transaction in Jakarta, Rupiah strengthened to Rp11,535 against the previous position of Rp11,568.- per USD. BI claimed that Indonesia’s forex reserves was so far safe, although being under pressure through January-September Rupiah had dropped by 17.7%.
The condition of forex reserves would continue to change for the better if balance of payment also improved. The condition was also thanks to trade balance which was beginning to post surplus. Still BI would continue to collaborate with other sentral banks or other institutions to manage forex and particularly to anticipate crisis.
Previously the Government of Japan already had made their commitment in regard to bilateral fund of USD 12 billion. The Government themselves was in possession of USD 5.5 billion reserve fund. As know the Government of RI had signed bilateral SWAP agreement with China. Uncertainty was certainly still there. By end of August last Indonesia’s forex reserves was still posted at USD 92.997 million.
Before shutdown by the Government of RI, Rupiah value once weakened by 35 points to the level of Rp11,380 on Wednesday [2/10] against the previous position of Rp11,345 per USD. Movement of the moneymarket at home was quite fluctuative following market’s anxiety over economic shutdown in the USA.
If economic shutdown in America lasted longer, the impact would be quite significant to global economy because it constituted around 20% of total economy, which would lessen demand for commodity and downsize the exchange rate value.
Thankfully, Indonesia’s economic data which was rated as positive was still strong enough to with stand pressures on Rupiah. The deflation factor on September 2013 of 0.35% made the market believe that BI would maintain BI rate at 7.25%. furthermore data of Indonesia’s trade balance in August 2013 also posted surplus of USD 132.4 million. It was expected that Indonesia’s export would increase so deficit would be downsized. Rupiah was predictably still fluctuation, moving around Rp11,300-Rp11,500 per USD during closing session last weekend [3/10]. This week Rupiah was predicted to strengthen to the level of Rp11,250-Rp11,450 per USD.
The positive sentiment was BI’s step prolong Biklateral Swap Agreement [BSA] with the Central Bank of China signed on 2009 last to strengthen financial system to the amount of around USD 15 billion. This was a follow up step needed by BI to increase guarantee of forex reserves for other countries in case needed someday. Previously BI had signed BSA extension agreement with Bank of Japan representing Japan’s Finance Minister. The BSA extension agreed on the amount of USD 12 billion effective as per August 31, 2013.
BI’s policy was meant to be anticipative step to strengthen forex resiliency. Uncertainty of global economy called for anticipative step for the future including efforts to maintain forex sufficiency.
Other efforts were also made by the Government to increase state’s forex income. While exporting palm products and mining products, also small business [UKM] products although still at small scale.
The Ministry of Trade would set up an Exporters’ Forum for UKM. The amount was not sizable but every single dollar that we obtain from export must be taken from that momentum. Record had it that there were 7,300 -7,600 UKM who were planning to export their products. The products were quite varied, among them UKM food products like eels which had penetrated the market in Japan and Japan was one of the countries which applied strict screening on food import.
Other ways was by market diversification, seeking for new buyer countries. Two African countries, Senegal and Gambia, were to be market of Indonesian products with export capacity up to USD 500 million per year. Market diversification was one way to cover up deficit of income from traditional buyer countries like America and Europe. The economic condition of America and Europe was still adverse.
Moreover the Asia Development Bank [ADB] reminded Indonesia to constantly strengthen competitive edge to increase export to improve growth attainment of 2013 and growth target of 2014 which was less than projected. Indonesia’s economic growth was estimated to be slower than predicted due to various policies adopted by the Government and posted deficit in current transaction.
ADB published the latest report on Asian Development Outlook [ADO] 2013 updat. ADB lowered Indonesia’s projection of GDP of 2013 to become 5.7% against prediction in April of 6.4%. For 2014, ADB also adjusted projections from 6.6% to 6.0%. Nevertheless ADB predicted Indonesia’s growth, inflation rate and current transaction would be better next year.
Growth in the first half of 2013 was below expectation, due to investment decline, lessened state’s expenditure and increased inflation due to up jump of fuel price. As predicted in earl 2013, private consumption was still the main propeller of growth. Increased job opportunities and salary, plus reduced income tax for the low income group, was able to reduce the impact of inflation and tight consumption credit.
For the short rub, ADO 2013 update predicted that various fiscal and monetary policy to maintain macro-economic stability would have impact on economic growth. High inflation would also lower consumption figures for the next few months. However consumption was predicted to grow again in 2014 when inflation subsides.
Various expenditure related to General Election next year would contribute to jacking up consumption. ADO 2013 Update also noted Indonesia was now more ready to face make turbulence compared to the crisis era of 2008-2009.
One thing was sure positive sentiment came to Asian currencies including Rupiah, due to the shutdown tragedy in the US Government. President Barack Obama blamed the Parliament for the shutdown. He promised to force the Congress to re open Government office to render vital services. Shutdown according to Obama, would bring serious economic impact on the people.
Previously, the Senate which was dominated by the Democrattic Party won in voting by 54 : 46 over the plan by the Republicans who dominated the Parliament. By the plan, the Parliament would only approve financing if Obama’s Low on Health be postponed for a year.
The shutdown step was taken after the Democratic Party, which dominated Parliament did not agree on the next fiscal year. The Republicans demanded to write off the health insurance scheme known as Obamacare while the Democratic Party refused to do so. The shutdown was announced for the first time by Sylvia Mathews Burwell, Budgeting Director of White House last Monday [30/9] toward midnight.
According to HIS Inc, a consultant agency, shutdown could incur loss to America at least USD 300 million [more than Rp3.4 trillion] per day. The amount was way below US economy worth USD 15.7 trillion, but unless attended to, the market’s confidence might fade out, causing the impact to widen.
HIS estimated that due shutdown, US economic growth of 2.2% per year would be reduced by 0.2% if it happened for a week. However, if it happened the way it happened in 1996, i.e. 21 days, reduction could be 0.9% or 1.4%. Goldman Sach ectimated that if shutdown took place for 3 weeks, it could reduce US GDP by 0.9%.
The Capital Market
Index of IHSG on Thursday last week [2/10] rose by 31 points thanks to strengthening of some premium shares of the mining sector. Index managed to turn positive in spite of negative sentiment from the global market. In the opening of morning session, IHSG inched up by 18.913 points [0.43%] to the level of 4,403.383 in spite of many negative sentiments around. Index managed to regain the 4,400 position.
Act of buying was still going on although not as merry as the day before. Cheap shares were sought after by investors. Index rose to the highest position of 4,442.78. During closing of Session I, IHSG rose by 31.997 points [0.73%] to the level of 4,419.601 amidst not-too-hectic transactions. Investors made selective buying of premium shares. In spite of acts of profit taking consumers shares and agriculture, IHSG managed to avoid the red zone this time.
Finally to close session last Thursday, [3/10], IHSG rose by 31.039 points [0.71%] to the level of 4,418,643. Meanwhile Index of LQ45 strengthened by 5.539 points [0.76%] to the level of 738.493. foreign investors joined the hunting spree. Shares of the mining sector took the lead in strengthening, index of the mining sector jumped up by 2%.
All quiet on the market front with only 98,631 transaction including 4.644 billion shares worth Rp3.712 trillion. 139 shares rose, 87 shares slumped, and 117 shares stagnant. Regional shares were closed to weaken, expect Hong Kong stockmarket which rose notably. Meanwhile regional investors were cautious in observing the shutdown process. Index of Hang Seng rose by 229.92 points [1.00%] to the level of 23,214.40. index of Nikkei 225 dropped by 13.24 points [0.09%] to the level of 14,147.25. Index of Straits Times inched down by 5.56 points [0,18%] to the level of 3,147.02.
The market was confident that last weekend [3/10] index would be closed strong in the range of 4 ,430-4,480 due to strengthening sentiment against USD following confrontation between the Republic Party and the Democratic Party which caused temporary shutdown of the US Government.
The only thing was that investors must observe the latest occurrence. Take for example the impact of tightening of LTV regulation which would be strongly felt by developers, especially opportunist developers. BI’s regulation that forbade credit extention on pre-sale basis expect for first homes, would suppress property developers, who were bound to bear the consequences.
However, the market believed that in general growth of property credit would still be stable. BI’s tight regulation was rated as BI’s step to protect property consumers from developers who were opportunistic in doing business. As per September 30, 2013, BI put in effect some new rules on LTV, applicable to conventional as well as Syariah banks.
The policy was fine tuning of the previous regulation, i.e. BI Circular No. 14/10/DPNP released by BI on March 15, 2012, effective as per July 2012 for type 70 M and up. Stockmarket analyst rated this LTV regulation had significant impact on company’s performance compared to the impact on banks.
The size of mortgage credit extended by banks in Indonesia ranged from 6.1% at PT Bank Mandiri Tbk [BMRI] to 16.9% at PT Bank Central Asia Tbk [BBCA] of their total credit respectively. Meanwhile PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk [BB 940 10] (+1.1%)] was the biggest commercial credit provider for mortgage not affected by the new LTV regulation.
Most probably the new LTV regulation was quite a strong blow on property developers without generating negative effect on banks. This was because property credit was not the bank’s core business which contributed to the growth process of leading banks n Indonesia. The growth of property credit was only slightly higher than the growth rate of banks as a whole in the past 5 years.
Meanwhile the condition of Indonesian stockmarket compared to 12 benchmark stockmarkets in the Asia Pacific region posted increase of market capitalization. Up to quarter III 2013 the average market capitalization for 12 reference indices of stockmarkets in Asia increased by 1.63%. Seven of 12 benchmark indices posted increase in market capitalization, the remaining 5 stockmarkets were posting downturn. Index of Hang Seng was posted as having highest market capitalization through quarter III 2013 by 10,21% to become HK$ 13.71 trillion.
By end of quarter II 2013 index of Hang Seng was closed at 20,803 points with Price to Earning Ratio [PER] of 9.57 times and value of market capitalization of HK$ 12.44 trillion. Meanwhile by end of quarter III 2013 index of Hang Seng was transected by PER valuation of 10.59 times and closed at the level of 22,859 points.
Other stocmarkets having increase of market capitalization was S&P 200 index 9.09%, South Korea stockmarket [Kospi index] rising by 8%, Nikkei Index Japan rose by 5.18 %. NSE index rose by 3.32% and Taiwan stockmarket rose by 1.60%. other stockmarkets showing falling capitalization was among others the Philippines stockmarket 5.14%, Thailand stockmarket dropped by 3.93%, Singapore stocmarket 1.06% and Malaysia stockmarket inched down by 0.02%.
Drastic downturn of capitalization at the domestic stockmarket indicated that Indonesia’s stockmarket was highly dependent on foreign investors. By the time Indonesia was disturbed by economic turbulence, foreign investors responded by drawing their capital out of the country in vast amount; such was made worse by the negative sentiment from the Rupiah factor. Rupiah was the most severely depreciated currency next to India Rupee in quarter III/2013.
Although the Indonesia capital market had high growth potential, the Government of stockmarket regulator were unable to strengthen investment bases at home. Capital outflow in large amount would have its impact on current transaction and market capitalization. At the same time domestic investors bases were not strong enough; so far IHSG performance were still dependent on foreign investors activities.
Foreign influence on the Indonesian stockmarket was seen in the IHSG performance. Since early year, foreign investors were doing net sell of nearly Rp10 trillion. And yet last year foreign investors were still making net investment worth USD 1.70 billion. This made the Indonesian stockmarket to fluctuate. Although touching the highest level of 5,214.98 point in May 2013, IHSG continued to fluctuate, even falling to as low as 3967.84 point on August 27.
Possession of portofolio asset was a sensitive issue in Indonesia. This included the risk of sudden capital flight and threat of national economy. Moreover the total ownership being transacted at the domestic stockmarket was extremely high.
Business News - October 9, 2013